Forecast Verification for Extratropical Cyclone Tracks

Under construction

Seasonally and yearly verification

This page displays seasonally and yearly statistics of extratropical cyclone tracks from several models. For simplicity, a season is categoried in sequential months: Jan-Mar as Winter, Apr-Jun as Spring, Jul-Sep as Summer, Oct-Dec as Fall. These statistics include forecast position error, X-bias, and Y-bias verified against model analysis. The tracks are from NCEP/EMC operational storm tracker and for short term verification (see tracker).

 
Seasonal cyclone track errors
Spring Summer Fall Winter
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015


Yearly cyclone track errors
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Time series and errors at 84hr and 120hr
84hr 120hr 84hr 120hr
 
Monthly summary of forecast cyclone X-bias
2008 2007
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September September
October October
November November
December December
Year stats Year stats
Bar chart Bar chart
 
Monthly summary of forecast cyclone Y-bias
2008 2007
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September September
October October
November November
December December
Year stats Year stats
Bar chart Bar chart

For NCEP operational model cyclone tracks and verification, go to

For questions on the EMC/MMB cyclone tracks, email Guang.Ping.Lou@noaa.gov or Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov