Forecast Verification for NCEP Cyclone Tracks

Monthly and yearly verification

Starting September 2008 NCEP/EMC routinely compute monthly statistics of cyclone tracks relating to several models. These statistics include forecast position error, X-bias, and Y-bias verified against model analysis. The tracks are from NCEP/EMC operational storm tracker and short term verification (see tracker). At the bottom of the table, the statistics for the available months of that year is also supplied. The current month statistics will become available within 5 days at the end of the month.

 
Monthly summary of forecast cyclone position errors
2008 2007
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September September
October October
November November
December December
Year stats Year stats
Bar chart Bar chart
 
Monthly summary of forecast cyclone X-bias
2008 2007
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September September
October October
November November
December December
Year stats Year stats
Bar chart Bar chart
 
Monthly summary of forecast cyclone Y-bias
2008 2007
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September September
October October
November November
December December
Year stats Year stats
Bar chart Bar chart

For NCEP operational model cyclone tracks and verification, go to

For questions on the EMC/MMB cyclone tracks, email Guang.Ping.Lou@noaa.gov or Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov