EMC RAP/HRRR Verification Stats

This page displays verification statistics for the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models over the most recent two week period. The RAP and HRRR are compared to their respective EMC parallels (RAPX and HRRRX) and other operational models (i.e. GFS, NAM, NAMNest). Data was obtained from the mv_emc_g2o, mv_g2g_vsdb_ref, mv_g2g_vsdb_etop, and mv_ylin_pcp databases and METViewer was utilized to generate the plots. For all near-surface variables (excluding CAPE), 5 different verification subregions were chosen, which encompass the 14 NCEP verification regions over the CONUS (see below). CAPE, RFL, ETOP, and all upper air variables are only verified over the CONUS. Unless otherwise specified, the plots display Mean Error (Bias) and RMSE as a function of valid hour. The reflectivity plots are for 6-hr and 12-hr forecasts g.t. 40 dBZ as a function of valid hour, and for all 6-hr and 12-hr forecasts as a function of threshold. The echo top plots are for all 6-hr and 12-hr forecasts as a function of threshold.

DISCLAIMER: This web page is not "operational" and therefore not subject to 24-hr monitoring by NCEP's Central Operations staff.

Note: Plot generation is currently in progress.

Monthly Archive

RAP/RAPX vs. HRRR/HRRRX

Surface and C&V Fields (29 Nov - 12 Dec)

3-hr Precipitation (20 Nov - 3 Dec)

GFS vs. RAP/RAPX vs. NAM

Surface and C&V Fields (29 Nov - 12 Dec)

Upper Air Fields (12 Nov - 25 Nov)

GFS/FV3GFS vs. RAP/RAPX vs. NAM

3-hr Precipitation (20 Nov - 3 Dec)

HRRR/HRRRX vs. NAMNest

Surface and C&V Fields (29 Nov - 12 Dec)

Upper Air Fields (12 Nov - 25 Nov)

HiResW ARW vs. HiResW NMMB vs. HRRR/HRRRX vs. NAMNest

3-hr Precipitation (20 Nov - 3 Dec)

Max/Composite Reflectivity (22 Oct - 4 Nov) (no RAPX or HRRRX yet)

Echo Top Height (22 Oct - 4 Nov) (HRRR, HRRRX not available)


NCEP Verification Regions

Acronym Name Region
NEC Northeast Coast East
SEC Southeast Coast East
APL Appalachian Mountains East
GMC Gulf of Mexico Coast Midwest-LMV
LMV Lower Mississippi Valley Midwest-LMV
MDW Midwest Midwest-LMV
NPL Northern Plains Plains
SPL Southern Plains Plains
NMT Northern Mountains Mountains
SMT Southern Mountains Mountains
SWD Southwest Desert West
GRB Great Basin West
NWC Northwest Coast West
SWC Southwest Coast West