SREF's reference

Presentations related to the NCEP SREF:

Application of the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System
to Predicting Extreme Precipitation Events


Dealing with Uncertainties in Forecasts

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts: A New NWP Tool for 0-3 Day Time Range (Beijing)

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts: A New NWP Tool for 0-3 Day Time Range (Taunton)

WWE II (2002/2003)

RSM Presentation (June 27, 2003) . PDF format file can be download from here

Workshop(20040518) on SREF Products (Powerpoint file)

References related to the NCEP SREF:

Du, Jun, 2007: Uncertainty and Ensemble Forecast. NOAA/NWS Science and Technology
Infusion Lecture Series, click NOAA WEB or here to view it.

Ryan, Bob, 2004: Forecasting with Spaghetti. NBC4. (click here to view it).

Brooks, H. E., M. S. Tracton, D. J. Stensrud, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth, 1995:
Short-range ensemble forecasting: Report from a workshop, 25-27 July 1994.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1617-1624.

Du, J., G. DiMego, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, B. Ferrier, B. Yang, S. Benjamin, 2014:
NCEP Regional Ensembles: Evolving toward hourly-updated convection-allowing
scale and storm-scale predictions within a unified regional modeling system.
22nd Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction and 26th Conf. on Weather Analysis
and Forecasting, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Feb. 1-6, 2014, paper J1.4
(click here to view it).

Du, J., G. DiMego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, J. Zhu, H. Chuang, J. Wang,
H. Juang, E. Rogers, and Y. Lin, 2009: NCEP short-range ensemble forecast
(SREF) system upgrade in 2009. 19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction
and 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha, Nebraska, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., June 1-5, 2009, paper 4A.4 (click here to view it).

Du, J., J. McQueen, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, and H. Chuang, 2006:
New Dimension of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System: Inclusion
of WRF Members, Preprint,WMO Expert Team Meeting on Ensemble Prediction System,
Exeter, UK, Feb. 6-10, 2006, 5 pages (click here to view it).
[available online http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/reference.html or
http://www.wmo.int/web/www/DPFS/Meetings/ET-EPS_Exeter2006/DocPlan.html ]

Du, J., 2005: Impact of Model Error and Imperfect Initial Condition Perturbations
on Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Forecasts: UNPREDICTABLE SPOTS.
Preprints, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction/21st Conference on
Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington DC., Aug. 1-5, 2005, Amer. Meteor.
Soc. (paper 15B.6) (click here to view it).

Du, J., 2004: Hybrid Ensemble Prediction System: a New Ensembling Approach.
Preprints, Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical
Weather Prediction, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland,
June 14-17, 2004, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM (paper p4.2, 5pp)
(click here to view it).

Du, J., J. McQueen, G. DiMego, T. Black, H, Juang, E. Rogers, B. Ferrier,
B. Zhou, Z. Toth and M. S, Tracton, 2004: The NOAA/NWS/NCEP short-range
ensemble forecast (SREF) system: evaluation of an initial condition vs
multi-model physics ensemble approach. Preprints, 16th Conference on
Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, Washington, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
CD-ROM (paper 21.3) (click here to view it).

Du, J., G. DiMego, M. S. Tracton, and B. Zhou 2003: NCEP short-range ensemble
forecasting (SREF) system: multi-IC, multi-model and multi-physics approach.
Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling (edited by
J. Cote), Report 33, CAS/JSC Working Group Numerical Experimentation
(WGNE), WMO/TD-No. 1161, 5.09-5.10 (click here to view it).

Du, J., and M. S. Tracton, 2001: Implementation of a real-time short-range
ensemble forecasting system at NCEP: an update.
Preprints, 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 355-356 (click here to view it).

Du, J., and M. S. Tracton, 1999: Impact of lateral boundary conditions on
regional-model ensemble predicion. Research Activities in Atmospheric and
Oceanic Modelling (edited by H. Ritchie), Report 28, CAS/JSC Working Group
Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), WMO/TD-No. 942, 6.7-6.8.

Eckel, F. A., and M. K. Walters, 1998: Calibrated probabilistic quantitative
precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting,
13, 1132-1147.

Grumm, R. H., and J. Du, 2005: NCEP SREF Forecasts of Three Hurricanes during the 2004
Tropical Season. Preprints, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction/21st
Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington DC., Aug. 1-5, 2005,
Amer. Meteor. Soc. (paper P1.46) (click here to view it).

Hamill, T.M., and S.J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range
ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.

Hamill, T.M., and S.J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble
probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.

Hou, D., E. Kalnay, and K. K. Droegemeier, 2001: Objective verification
of the SAMEX'98 ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 73-91.

Korotky, J., and R. Grumm, 2006: Using ensemble probability forecasts and high
resolution models to identify severe weather threats. Click here to view it (PDF)

Manikin, G., J. McQueen, B. Ferrier, and J. Du, 2004: Changes to the NCEP SREF
System and Their Impact on Convection Forecasting, 22nd Conference on Severe
Local Storms, paper 17.4, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Click here to view it (PDF)

McQueen, J., J. Du, B. Zhou, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, H-Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and
Z. Toth, 2005: Recent Upgrades to the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
(SREF) and Future Plans. Preprints, 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction/21st
Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington DC., Aug. 1-5, 2005,
Amer. Meteor. Soc. (paper 11.2) (click here to view it).

Stensrud D. J., H. E. Brooks, J. Du, M. S. Tracton, and E. Rogers, 1999:
Using Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting, Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 433-446.

Stensrud D. J., H. E. Brooks, J. Du, M. S. Tracton, and E. Rogers, 2000:
Reply to "Comments on Using Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting",
Mon. Wea. Rev., 128.

Tracton, M. S. and J. Du, 1998: Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at
NCEP/EMC. Proceedings of 6th Workshop on Meteorological Operational
Systems, Reading, England, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF).

Tracton M. S., J. Du,, 2001: Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction. A report to WMO ensemble
expert meeting. Click here to download or display (.doc) or available online at
http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/Meetings/WS-EPS/PROCEEDINGS/Lecture-12.doc

Tracton M. S., J. Du,, 2001: Application of the NCEP/EMC short-range ensemble
forecast system (SREF) to predicting extreme precipitation events.
Preprints, Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and
Responses, Albuqerque, New Mexico, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64-65.

Tracton M. S., J. Du, Z. Toth, and H. Juang, 1998: Short-range ensemble
forecasting (SREF) at NCEP/EMC. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather
Prediction, Phoenix, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 11.4, 269-272.

Yuan, H., J. Du, J. McGinley, P. Schultz, B. Zhou, C. Lu, Z. Toth and G. DiMego, 2007:
Postprocessing of Precipitation Forecasts for New Configured NCEP Short-Range
Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System, paper 6B.2, 22nd WAF/18th NWP Conference,
Park City, Utah, June 25-29, 2007, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Click here to download or view (.pdf)

Yuan, H., X. Gao, S. L. Mullen, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H Juang, 2007:
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with an Articial
Neural Network, Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 1287-1303.

Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H Juang, 2005:
Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest
United States during winter 2002-2003 by the RSM ensemble system,
Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 279-294.

Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H Juang, 2007:
Short-Range Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the Southwest
United States by the RSM Ensemble System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1685-1698.

Zhou B., J. Du, J. McQueen, G. DiMego, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, Z. Toth, H. Juang,
M. Hart and J. Han, 2004: An Introduction to NCEP SREF Aviation Project, 11th
Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace, Oct4-8, Hyannis, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Click here to get it (PDF)

Zhou B., J. McQueen, J. Du, G. DiMego and Z. Toth, 2004: Verification of SREF
Low-level Wind Shear(LLWS) SREF Working Report. Click here to get it (PDF)

Zhou B., J. Du, Brad Ferrier, J. Mcqueen, and G. DiMegoet al, 2007: Numerical
Forecast of Fog -- Central Solutions 18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
25-29 June, Park City,Utah, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Click here to get it (PDF)

Zhou B., J. Du, J. McQueen and G. DiMego, 2009: Ensemble forecast of ceiling,
visibility and fog with NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) Aviation,
Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management
Integration, 89th AMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, 11-15, January 2009 Click here to get it (PDF)

Zhou B., J. Du and G. DiMego, 2010: Introduction to the NCEP Very Short Range
Ensemble Forecsat System (VSREF), 14th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace,
90th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, 17-21, January 2010.Click here to get it (PDF)

Zhou B. and J. Du, 2010: Fog Prediction froma Multimodel Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System,
Wea. and Forecasting, 25, 303-322. Click here to get it (PDF)

Zhou B., J. Du, I. Gultepe and G. DiMego, 2012: Forecast of low visibility and fog from NCEP:
current status and efforts. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169:(5-6), 895-909. Click here to view it



References related to the Breeding Method:


Toth, Z., and Kalnay, E., 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and
the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.

Toth, Z., and Kalnay, E., 1993: Ensemble Forecasting at the NMC:
The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.

References related to SREF in general:



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