SREF's WWW page
Selected Cases of the RSM-based NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF)
Case 4: Cyclone at Sea Level
For this cyclone case (12Z, 03/13/97), a simple ensemble averaging process can reduce the forecast (48hr)
sea-level cyclone position (depth) error from about 400km (6mb) (Fig. CTL, control forecast) to about 150km (2mb) (Fig. Mean_r,
ensemble mean) with respect to the verification (Fig. ANL). The ensemble mean was calculated from a 5-member RSM-based
ensemble (with regional bred mode).
This "Regional Ensemble" page is provided and maintained by JUN DU. Please send your comments and
suggestions to him by click here (Jun.Du@noaa.gov).
(Last update: 06/11/1997)