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Selected Cases of the RSM-based NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF)



Case 4: Cyclone at Sea Level

For this cyclone case (12Z, 03/13/97), a simple ensemble averaging process can reduce the forecast (48hr) sea-level cyclone position (depth) error from about 400km (6mb) (Fig. CTL, control forecast) to about 150km (2mb) (Fig. Mean_r, ensemble mean) with respect to the verification (Fig. ANL). The ensemble mean was calculated from a 5-member RSM-based ensemble (with regional bred mode).

This "Regional Ensemble" page is provided and maintained by JUN DU. Please send your comments and suggestions to him by click here (Jun.Du@noaa.gov). (Last update: 06/11/1997)