SREF's WWW page
Selected Cases of the RSM-based NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF)
Case 2: 1997 Southern US Heavy Rain (02/12/97 - 02/13/97)
For this Southern US heavy rain case (12Z, 02/11/97), the maximum probability of precipitation
amount exceeding 2.0"/12hr (24-36hr, upper right figure), derived from a 5-member RSM-based ensemble (with regional
bred mode), agrees quite well with the observed rainfall center (in 24hr-accumulation, lower figure).
However, the individual forecasts show variability in location (e.g., the isohyet of 2.0"/12hr,
upper left figure).
This "Regional Ensemble" page is provided and maintained by JUN DU. Please send your comments and
suggestions to him by click here (Jun.Du@noaa.gov).
(Last update: 06/11/1997)