SREF's WWW page
Selected Cases of the RSM-based NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF)
Case 1: 1996/1997 Winter California Flooding (12/30/96 - 01/02/97)
For this California flooding case (12Z, 12/31/96), the maximum probability of precipitation
amount exceeding 1.0"/12hr (24-36hr, upper right figure), derived from a 5-member RSM-based ensemble (with regional
bred mode), agrees quite well with the observed rainfall center (in 24hr-accumulation, lower figure).
However, the individual forecasts vary considerablly in location (e.g., the isohyet of 1.0"/12hr,
upper left figure).
This "Regional Ensemble" page is provided and maintained by JUN DU. Please send your comments and
suggestions to him by click here (Jun.Du@noaa.gov).
(Last update: 06/11/1997)