Selected Cases of the RSM-based NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF)

Case 1: 1996/1997 Winter California Flooding (12/30/96 - 01/02/97)

For this California flooding case (12Z, 12/31/96), the maximum probability of precipitation amount exceeding 1.0"/12hr (24-36hr, upper right figure), derived from a 5-member RSM-based ensemble (with regional bred mode), agrees quite well with the observed rainfall center (in 24hr-accumulation, lower figure). However, the individual forecasts vary considerablly in location (e.g., the isohyet of 1.0"/12hr, upper left figure).