Objective evaluation of MRF and ensemble based QPF

MRF ---- Operational
T62 ---- Ens Control
P50 ---- 50% of ens
Domain ---- Continental of US
Regions ---- See regional mask
EQS ---- Equitable threat score
SBS --- -Standard bias score

24 hours period for each lead time ( Continental US )

0506w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
05fal
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
05sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
05spr
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
0405w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
04fal
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
04sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
04spr
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
0304w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
03fal
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
03sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
03spr
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
0203w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
02fal
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
02sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
02spr
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
0102w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
01fal
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
01sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
01spr
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
0001w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
00fal
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
00sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
00spr
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
9900w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
9899w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
98sum
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324
9798w
12
36
60
84
108
132
156
180
204
228
252
276
300
324

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Continental US )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
50.0
75.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Appl )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = East )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Fntr )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Gulf )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Midw )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Npln )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Rkys )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = Spln )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0

For different 24 hours threat amount ( Region = West )

0506w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
05spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0405w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
04spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0304w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
03spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0203w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
02spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0102w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
01spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0001w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00fal
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
00spr
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9900w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9899w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
98sum
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
9798w
0.2
2.0
5.0
10.0
15.0