FNMOC Global Ensemble Evaluation Page

Developed by Yuejian Zhu

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Global Ensemble Verification System (short presentation)

Zhu and Toth, 2008: Ensemble Based Probabilistic Forecast Verification Preprint of 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, Jan. 20-24 2008, New Orleans, Louisiana

Early Summary for FNMOC Global Ensemble System(NAEFS tele-conference, Dec. 2008)

Later Summary for FNMOC Global Ensemble System(NAEFS tele-conference, May 2009)


Early Study: Raw forecast with NCEP (summer 2008 - short)

Early Study: Raw forecast with NCEP and CMC (summer 2008 - short)


1a: Raw Forecast: NCEP, CMC, FNMOC (Individual Performance: Fall 2008)

1b: Raw Forecast: NCEP, CMC, FNMOC (Individual Performance: Winter 0809)

1c: Raw Forecast: NCEP, CMC, FNMOC (Individual Performance: Spring 2009)


2a: Raw Forecast: NCEP+FNMOC (Joined Performance: Fall 2008)

2b: Raw Forecast: NCEP+FNMOC (Joined Performance: Winter 0809)

2c: Raw Forecast: NCEP+FNMOC (Joined Performance: Spring 2009)


3a: Raw Forecast: NCEP+CMC+FNMOC (Joined Performance: Fall 2008)

3b: Raw Forecast: NCEP+CMC+FNMOC (Joined Performance: Winter 0809)

3c: Raw Forecast: NCEP+CMC+FNMOC (Joined Performance: Spring 2009)


4b: FNMOC bias corrected forecast ( Winter 0809)

4c: FNMOC bias corrected forecast ( Spring 2009)


5b: FNMOC bias corrected forecast (Every 24h - Winter 0809)