Objective evaluation of GFS and ensemble based QPF

GFS ---- Operational
CTL ---- GEFS Ens Control
OBS ---- 6 hourly CCPA
Domain ---- Continental of US
Total verfied boxes: 332047 at 5KM NDGD grid over CONUS

EQS ---- Equitable threat score
SBS ---- Standard bias score

Precipitation Verification

RMSE

0910w

09fal

09sum

09spr

09yer

GFS
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Precipitation Verification

RMSE

0910w

09fal

09sum

09spr

09yer

GEFS/CTL
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

6 hours period for each lead time ( Continental US )

09spr
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
09sum
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
09fal
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
0910w
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
09yer
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
12spr
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
12sum
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
12fal
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
1213w
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
12yer
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
13spr
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
13sum
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
13fal
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
1314w
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180
13yer
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
102
108
114
120
126
132
138
144
150
156
162
168
174
180

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Continental US )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = CNRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = CBRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = MBRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = ABRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = WGRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = NCRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = LMRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = OHRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = NERFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = MARFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = SERFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0

For different 6 hours threat amount ( Region = NWRFC )

09spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
0910w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
09yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1213w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
12yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13spr
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13sum
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13fal
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
1314w
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0
13yer
0.2
1.0
2.0
3.2
5.0
7.0
10.0
15.0
25.0