Performance of CCSM v3.5 and CFS v1 monthly forecasts
This site shows the results of a verification of the monthly mean
ensemble forecasts based on the CCSM Version 3.5, and
the CFS Version 1 (Saha et al. 2006).
The verification includes calculation of model (systematic and RMS) errors,
the ROC for three classes of events (upper, middle and lower tercile)
and a brief analysis of the ensemble performance (ensemble spread, CRPS).
The focus is on monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation over
the U.S. and on forecasts of Nino 3.4.
Three variables are evaluated: Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Two-meter Temperature (T2m), and Precipitation Rate (Prate). Forecasts are compared against verifying fields consisting of OIv2 for SST, GHCN+CAM for T2m, and CMAP for Prate.
The verification is for the years 1982 to 1998. The verification is not
performed in a cross-validation mode.
JANUARY INITIAL CONDITIONS
March 2010 Report
Assessment of CCSMv3.5 and CSFv1
August 2010 Poster
AGU Meeting of the Americas
JULY INITIAL CONDITIONS
Documents and References
Consolidation of Multimodel Forecasts by Ridge Regression Paper