Performance of CCSM v3.5 and CFS v1 monthly forecasts

This site shows the results of a verification of the monthly mean ensemble forecasts based on the CCSM Version 3.5, and the CFS Version 1 (Saha et al. 2006). The verification includes calculation of model (systematic and RMS) errors, the ROC for three classes of events (upper, middle and lower tercile) and a brief analysis of the ensemble performance (ensemble spread, CRPS). The focus is on monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation over the U.S. and on forecasts of Nino 3.4.
Three variables are evaluated: Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Two-meter Temperature (T2m), and Precipitation Rate (Prate). Forecasts are compared against verifying fields consisting of OIv2 for SST, GHCN+CAM for T2m, and CMAP for Prate.
The verification is for the years 1982 to 1998. The verification is not performed in a cross-validation mode.


JANUARY INITIAL CONDITIONS

March 2010 Report
  • Assessment of CCSMv3.5 and CSFv1
    August 2010 Poster
  • AGU Meeting of the Americas

    Additional figures

  • Systematic errors

  • JULY INITIAL CONDITIONS

    Documents and References

  • Consolidation of Multimodel Forecasts by Ridge Regression Paper
  • Contact: malaquias.pena.mendez@noaa.gov.