Normalized spread is computed by averaging the spread values at every
gridpoint separately for the most recent 30 days, for each lead time. Today's
ensemble spread then is divided by the average spread (for each gridpoint
and lead time separately). Normalized spread values below (above) 1 represent
areas where today's spread is below (above) the typical spread over the
most recent 30 day period, With this normalization the effect of
different lead times and different geographical areas is eliminated. Consequently
the forecasters can identify areas with below and above average uncertainty
in the forecast at any lead time and at any geographical location.
For further information, please consult the Reference and Training sections of the EMC global ensemble home page.