onfirmation of Actions
TReC Case Selection Conference


Conference time:   200312040900

Outlook: 
High pressure is expected to dominate over much of Europe over the
weekend and early next week, with a trough extending south from
Scandinavia to the Balkans and Greece. Developments over the Atlantic on
Tuesday continue to be handled differently by all models, with the MO
model having a major low just northwest of the UK while NCEP and ECMWF
T511 models have this closer to Iceland. Beyond this there are signs of
more mobility for northwest Europe in the ECMWF ensemble mean but a high
degree of uncertainty remains and it seems sensible to wait before
trying to target any cases.

Existing Case

Identifier               Trec_026
Verification region      Western Atlantic
sub region               40N 75W
Verification time        200312071200 UTC (Sunday)
Observation time         200312051800 UTC (Friday) 
Priority                 Medium

Models are now in better agreement that the development of the low on
Sunday will be significantly offshore with lower impact on the
northeastern States. As a result it was decided to lower the priority to
Medium. The main development now expected on Monday but the track and
location are still uncertain, with the potential for high impact weather
over Newfoundland. It was agreed to run standard sensitive area
calcualtions for the same criteria as yesterday (above) and extra
calculations as follows:
TReC_026(1)
Verification region      Western Atlantic
sub region               45N 60W
Verification time        200312081200 UTC (Monday)
Observation time         200312061800 UTC (Saturday) 


Newcase:

The trough extension from Scandinavia to the Balkans and Greece was
targetted and it was decided to allocate this case number TReC_027 with
low priority due to the potential for high impact weather (rain and
snowfall) in the Balkans and Greeece region, and also as there is
sigificant uncertainty over the location of the trough.
Identifier               Trec_027
Verification region      Southern Europe
sub region               40N 20E
Verification time        200312081200 UTC (Monday)
Observation time         200312061800 UTC (Saturday) 
Priority                 Low

Actions:
Standard sensitve area calculations requested form ECMWF, MF, MO, NCEP,
NRL for TReC_26 and TReC_27
Extra sensitve area calculations requested form ECMWF, MF, MO, NCEP, NRL
for TReC_26(1)


Next conference today, 1600 UTC Thursday 4th December.