Confirmation of Actions

TReC Case Selection Conference





Conference time:   200312020900



Outlook: 

Good agreement now among models for a cold plunge across eastern Europe

on Saturday 6th, but a renewal of this early next week, far enough west

to be of interest to us, now looks unlikely. High pressure looks likely

to dominate Europe and eventually eastern America with no cases

anticipated for a few days other than trec_026. However there are signs

that the situation across the Atlantic could become more mobile by the

middle of next week with cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic affecting

west or northwest Europe, perhaps as early as Tuesday 9th (ECMWF T511

run). It was felt that it would be prudent to keep G-IV resources in

hand for such an event. As a very early heads up, ECMWF and MO are

calculating sensitivities for an area centred on 45N 30W, verifying at

00UTC Tuesday 9th and for observations on Sunday 7th at 18UTC. Other

extra calculations welcome.





Identifier              Trec_024

Verification region      Northern Europe

sub region               65N 10E

Verification time        200312041200 UTC (Thursday)

Observation time         200311021800 UTC (Tuesday) 

Priority                 low



Actions: 

Today’s flights hopefully to go ahead as planned. No new sensitivity

calculations required.



New Case



Identifier               Trec_026

Verification region      Western Atlantic

sub region               40N 75W

Verification time        200312061200 UTC (Saturday)

Observation time         200312041800 UTC (Thursday) 

Priority                 low



Upper trough moving east across the US, engaging warm low level air from

the gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Potential for heavy rain over eastern

US and possibly strong cyclogenesis. Latest model runs carry surface low

away more quickly to the northeast and rainfall totals lower than in

previous runs so this has been assigned low priority at present. Note

trec_025 has been assigned to the proposed Citation AQUA over pass

flight on Wednesday 3rd, purely to track the data for future reference

as this is not a TReC commissioned flight. 



Actions:

Sensitive area calculations requested form ECMWF, MF, MO, NCEP, NRL





Next conference today, 1600 UTC Tuesday 2nd December.