Confirmation of Actions
TReC Case Selection Conference


Conference time:   200311270900

Outlook: 
Continued signal after Tuesday 2nd December for the trough to disrupt
over the western Mediterranean. ECMWF has quite a deep low at 04/0000
UTC near to Majorca/Ibiza with associated high rainfall totals over
parts of southern France and northern Italy. GFS has a much slacker flow
(although a more intense feature does develop through the following 24
hours)and subsequent less marked rainfall. Many remaining parts of
Europe become increasingly domianted by a ridge with Atlantic storm
track well north of Scotland.   

Existing cases:

Identifier               Trec_021      
Verification region:     Western Atlantic   
sub region:              52N  60W
verification time:       200311300000 (Sunday)
observation time:        200311281800 (Friday)
priority:                Low

ECMWF and MF Models showing a good deal of agreement with respect to
positioning of low and central pressure, although MO slightly different
in both respects. Overall, it was decided to keep Trec_021 in operation
since there are relatively few resources assigned to it. Indeed, ship
WPKD now unable to contribute and so information will be gathered by two
sondes only.

Actions:
None. 


Identifier               Trec_022      
Verification region:     Central Europe  
sub region:              45N  07E
verification time:       200311011200 (Monday)
observation time:        200311281800 (Friday) and 200311291800
(Saturday)
priority:                Medium

Upper trough sharpens and extends south across Biscay, northern Spain
and France during Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Models show differences in
positioning of surface lows with GFS indicating a fairly active
depression situated close to Normandy at 01/1200 UTC. However, ECMWF and
GFS are both agreed that parts of eastern (and particularly
southeastern) France are at risk from some heavy, prolonged rainfall,
ECMWF in particular. 

Actions:
Central point of verification was changed slightly to ensure that area
of heaviest rain acoss southeast France is captured. Sensitive area
calculations requested from ECMWF and MO for both Friday (28th) and
Saturday (29th) at 1800 UTC, with verification time of Monday 1st
December at 1200 UTC. Additonal calcualtions from Miami and NCEP would
be welcomed.

New cases:

Philippe at MeteoFrance suggested the possibility of a new case,
although linked to the rainfall event defined by Trec_022, for Tuesday
2nd December at 1200 UTC. It was decided to leave this for now and to
review at the conference on Friday morning. 

Next conference today, 1600 UTC Thursday 27th November.