TReC Target Area Selection conference - Confirmation of actions Conference time: 200311211600 ============================================================================== Case Identifier: trec_018 verification region: Northern Europe sub region: centre 45N 5W verification time: 2003112512 (Tuesday) observation time: 2003112218 (Saturday) priority: medium Sensitive area calculations from Met Office, ECMWF (dry TE SVs), NCEP, Meteo-France Summary: ECMWF results similar to yesterday - sensitivity over Canada (small low sensitivity area just off Newfoundland). Meteo-France covers same area. Met Office main sensitivity between Newfoundland and Greenland; less sensitivity over Canada than on yesterday's charts. NCEP for obs 00 UT on 23rd similar to (just E of) Met Office; for 12 UT on 22nd, max W and S of Newfoundland. Also available is Eady index (from ECMWF) - similar area to Met Office ETKF. So overall not much change from yesterdays guidance. Keep to yesterday's recommendations for Saturday deployment, plus short Falcon flight to E coast Greenland (will pass edge of sensitive area and also give null test; also concern about weather later, so need to use some flight hours). Citation cannot drop over land so would have to take sea route to St Johns - goes through S part of ETKF sensitivity Selected target area: General area 45-65N,35-60W Request for obs: 24-hour confirmation for ASAP ships, 24-hour confirmation for AMDAR to be set for large area 45-65N,10-60W; to be left on until further notice 24-hour confirmation for radiosonde ascents from Canada, Greenland (NB all possible Greenland ascents S of 72N) 24-hour confirmation for G-IV flight (guide: St Johns -> 62N,40W -> 62N50W -> St Johns) 24-hour confirmation for Citation (Bangor - St Johns) 24-hour confirmation for Falcon to E coast Greenland ============================================================================== Case Identifier: trec_018 verification region: Northern Europe sub region: centre 45N 5W verification time: 2003112600 (Wednesday) observation time: 2003112218 (Sunday) priority: medium Sensitive area calculations from Met Office, ECMWF, NCEP, NRL, Meteo-France. Summary: Difference between SV (ECMWF) and ETKF (Met Office, NCEP). ECMWF sensitivities all mainly over Labrador. Lower sensitivity extension through Newfoundland to ~48N,45W in moist SVs (Hessian SVs may miss this area because of expected routine obs?). Met Office and NCEP sensitivities mostly over Atlantic, centred on line between 40N50W and 65N20W. NRL sensitivities in similar location across N Atlantic. ECMWF sensitivities also around Madeira, and some Hessian sensitivity mid-Atlantic centred ~40N40W. Another good opportunity to sample the different sensitive areas with combination of aircraft and radiosondes for a case of large uncertainty. Selected target area: General area 35-65N,20-60W Request for obs: 48-hour warning for ASAP ships (AMDAR already on for 45-65N,10-60W) 48-hour warning for radiosonde ascents from Canada (all), Greenland (2 most SE), Tenerife, Madeira 48-hour warning for rapid scan winds centred 50N40W 48-hour warning for G-IV flight to Shannon (guide: SE from St Johns, then NE to Iceland and down th Shannon; but coordinate first leg with Citation) 48-hour warning for Citation - loop SE from St Johns (co-ordinate with G-IV) 48-hour warning for Falcon - possible flight to E Greenland if weather permits and if this complements G-IV track Outlook: large uncertainty throughout next week over Atlantic, so expectations of more flights (no details yet) ============================================================================== Conference chaired by: David Richardson Participants: Helen Griffin, Richard Dumelow (Met Office), Steve Stringer Bruce Truscott (EUCOS), Hubert Brunet (Meteo France), Lacey Holland (NCEP), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Andreas Doernbrack (DLR), Haraldur Olafsson (Iceland), Mel Shapiro (NOAA), Rolf Langland (NRL), John Murray (NASA); Jim Caughey (Director, EUCOS), Elena Manaenkova (Director AREP, WMO) ============================================================================== Next conference: 20031122 0900 UTC (confirmed; also 1600 UTC 20031122) ==============================================================================