onfirmation of Actions
TReC Case Selection Conference


Conference time:   200311150900

Outlook:

Beyond Thursday 20th there is growing agreemnt among deterministic
models and NCEP and ECMWF ensembles for trough amplification in the
sector from mid-Atlantic to western Europe, but with a grest deal of
uncertainty in the detail and actual longitude. There is scope for an
interesting case verifying around Friday 21st with the potential for
strong cyclogenesis in the base or forward side of the trough.

Existing cases :     
 
Identifier:              TRec_013                
verification region:     Northern Europe    
sub region:              57N  00E
verification time:       200311191200 (Wednesday)
observation time:        200311181800 (Tuesday)
priority:                low

actions:              It looks very unlikely that there will be any
interesting developemnts as the wave runs east across Scotland on
Wednesday 19th. There remains a small chance of developing if the upper
trough to the rear moves east fast enough to engage the wave, but sholud
this happen it is likley to be a lst minute event and hopefully could be
caught by targeting a short range forecast as suggested above. We are
therefore not holding a conference this afternoon and there are no
requests for any additional sensitive area calculations today or flights
on Sunday or Monday.

There will be no morning conference tomorrow and no afternoon conference
unless notice is given on the ftp site or by e-mail before 1000UTC
tomorrow (Sunday 16th).
The next routine conference will be at 0900UTC Monday 17th. 
   
 

 
New Cases:

Identifier:             TRec_013                
verification region:     Northern Europe    
sub region:              55N  05W
verification time:       200311190000 (Wednesday)
observation time:        200311161800 (Sunday)
priority:                low 

Actions:  Sensitive area calculations requested from ECMWF,MO, NCEP and
NRL (range to great fro MF)

Next conference TODAY (14th) at 1600UTC