Confirmation of Actions
TReC Case Selection Conference


Conference time:   200311110900

Outlook:

Friday's low (trec_011) moves away to slowly fill between Scotland and
Norway over the weekend, with a ridge developing from the southwest
arcoss much of Europe. However before this a further trough runs east
into Biscay and disrupts with surface low quickly filling but with a cut
off low forming over the western mediterranean. This situation has the
potential to generate a low priority case but the cut off now looks less
threatening than in previous runs as it drifts south into north Africa.
Chance of a further case over northern Europe early next week as major
low developing over eastern Canada on Friday 14th runs east to be
between Scotland and Iceland by the end of Monday 17th, bringing strong
winds across Northern UK into Denmark.    

Exisiting cases :     
 
Indentifier:             TRec_011                
verification region:     Northern Europe    
sub region:              57N  05W
verification time:       200311140000 UTC
observation time:        200311121800 UTC
priority:                Medium

actions:              Additonal ascent to be requested from the Azores
at 18UTC Wednesday 12th. No additional sensitivity calculations
requested 

New Cases: none 

No new cases identified but there is some potential for a low priority
case verifying on Saturday 15th as upper trough disrupts to the west of
Biscay. We are posting a request for sensitive area calculations for
this on the ftp site. Verfication time 12UTC Saturday 15th (06z for
Meteo france calculations) and observation time 18UTC Thursday 13th and
an area centred 50N 15W. 

In addition to this ECMWF and MO will make preliminary calculations of
possible sensitive areas for strong winds over northern Europe,
verifying Tuesday 18th 00UTC and with an observation time of  Satruday
15th at 18UTC  and an area centred on 55N 05E.  

Next conference TODAY (11th) at 1600UTC