Work Plan for the Global Modeling branch for 1999

1. Class VIII conversion for the GDAS/AVN/MRF suite

2. Higher resolution analysis and forecast system tests

3. Analysis

a. Improved assimilation techniques : Precipitation initialization, Grid point version of the analysis.

b. Enhancements to the use of current observations and the inclusion of new observations: Improved conventional observation operators, Improved radiative transfer for the direct use of radiances, Improved use of high resolution winds inferred from GOES imagery, Inclusion of line of sight winds, improved use of NOAA-15 radiances.

4. Prognostic cloud scheme for improved cloud fraction/cloud radiative property prediction

5. Model 2000 development

6. Further development of verification system

7. Beyond day-5 model forecast character assessment

8. Ensemble forecast evaluation, PQPF

9. Model tropical climate evaluation

10. Continued interaction with other branches

11. Expanded interactions with other NCEP centers and the rest of the weather service

plan /goal general forecast QPF

day3-8

hurricane seasonal aviation week 2
class VIII
high resol. x
data assim. x x x x x x
prog. cloud x x x x x
model 2K x
verification x
day7-14 x x
ensemble x x x
tropics x x x
omb/cmb x x x
awc/tpc/cpc/nws x x
plan personnel
class VIII Sela, Tremolet, Chang, Iredell, Kistler,....
high resol. Iredell, Caplan, Saha, White, Zhu
data assim. Derber, Treadon, Wu
prog. cloud Moorthi, Campana, Caplan, Hong
model 2K Purser, Iredell, Moorthi
verification Caplan, Saha, White
day7-14 Saha, Zhu, Caplan
ensemble Zolton, Zhu
tropics White, Hong, Pan
omb/cmb Pan, Saha,
awc/tpc/cpc/nws Kistler, Caplan, Campana, Saha