Tropical Disturbances

 

          Shown below are longitude-time plots of 850 and 200 hPa meridional winds at 15N in MRF analyses and forecasts for the Pacific and the Atlantic.  They display westward-propagating disturbances.  Time series of longer range forecasts tend not to show propagating disturbances, although individual forecasts do display propagation out to 15 days. 

 

Atlantic (120W-0)

 

15N

 

850 hPa

 

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

 

 

15 day fcst from Aug. 7

Verifying Analyses

 

200 hPa

 

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

 

 

15 day fcst from Aug. 7

Verifying Analyses

 

TOA OLR (compare to verifying analyses for 1 day fcsts)

 

Equator

 

850 hPa

 

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

 

TOA OLR (compare to verifying analyses for 1 day fcsts)

 

Pacific (90E-90W)

 

850 hPa

 

15N

 

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

 

TOA OLR (compare to verifying analyses for 1 day fcsts)

 

15 day fcst from Aug. 7

Verifying Analyses

 

Equator

 

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Verifying analyses

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

Error

 

TOA OLR (compare to verifying analyses for 1 day fcsts)