A Comparison of PRE13A Analyses and Forecasts to Other Centers

 

June 2010

 

Height

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

EC-UK

 

RMS

 

12 hour  errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Difference in analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

EC-UK

 

RMS Error

 

Zonal mean-12h

 

Zonal mean-1day

 

Zonal mean-3day

 

40-60N-12 hours

 

40-60N-1day

 

40-60N-3day

 

 

12hour

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

Differences in 12 hour RMS errors

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

1 day

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Differences in 1 day RMS errors

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

3 day

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Differences in 3 day RMS errors

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

RMS Difference-Analyses

 

Zonal mean

 

Zonal mean-ocean

 

40-50N

 

Regional

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Wind Magnitude

 

Zonal means

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

30-40N

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Equator

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

 

200 hPa

 

30-40N 12 hr

 

30-40N 3 dy

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

12 hour  errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

850 hPa

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Average of daily RMS differences in winds between centers

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anal

500 anal

850 anal

200 12 hr fcsts

500 12 hr fcsts

850 12 hr fcsts

 

CAN-PRE13A

EC-PRE13A

FNMOC-PRE13A

MO-PRE13A

 

 

EC-MO

JMA-PRE13A

 

Equator

 

CAN-PRE13A

EC-PRE13A

FNMOC-PRE13A

MO-PRE13A

 

 

EC-MO

JMA-PRE13A

 

200 hPa

 

CAN-PRE13A

ECMWF-PRE13A

FNMOC-PRE13A

MO-PRE13A

 

 

ECMWF-MO

JMA-PRE13A

 

500 hPa

 

CAN-PRE13A

ECMWF-PRE13A

FNMOC-PRE13A

MO-PRE13A

 

 

ECMWF-MO

JMA-PRE13A

 

850 hPa

 

CAN-PRE13A

ECMWF-PRE13A

FNMOC-PRE13A

MO-PRE13A

 

 

ECMWF-MO

JMA-PRE13A

 

RMS Wind Error

 

Zonal means

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

200 hPa

500 hPa

850 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

200 hPa 1 day

500 hPa 1 day

850 hPa 1 day

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

200 hPa 3 day

500 hPa 3 day

850 hPa 3 day

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

20S-20N

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

 PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

 

200 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

850 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

 

EC-UK

PRE13A-JMA

 

Normalized RMS Wind Error

 

(Normalized by square root of transient eddy kinetic energy in forecasts)

 

Zonal means

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

200 hPa

500 hPa

850 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

200 hPa 1 day

500 hPa 1 day

850 hPa 1 day

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

200 hPa 3 day

500 hPa 3 day

850 hPa 3 day

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

20S-20N

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

 PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

 

200 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

850 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

PRE13A

UK

FNMOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

PRE13A-Can

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-UK

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-JMA

 

Wind

 

Western Hemisphere

 

200

 

CAN anl

EC anl

PRE13A anl

MO anl

FNMOC anl

JMA anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

PRE13A 12hr

MO 12hr

FNMOC 12hr

 

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

PRE13A 1dy

MO 1dy

FNMOC 1dy

JMA 1dy

CAN 3dy

EC 3dy

PRE13A 3dy

MO 3dy

FNMOC 3dy

JMA 3dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

PRE13A 12hr error

MO 12hr error

FNMOC 12hr error

 

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

PRE13A 1dy error

MO 1dy error

FNMOC 1dy error

JMA 1dy error

CAN 3dy error

EC 3dy error

PRE13A 3dy error

MO 3dy error

FNMOC 3dy error

JMA 3dy error

PRE13A-Can anl

PRE13A-EC anl

 

PRE13A-MO anl

PRE13A-FNMOC anl

PRE13A-JMA anl

PRE13A-Can 12hr

PRE13A-EC 12hr

 

PRE13A-MO 12hr

PRE13A-FNMOC 12hr

 

PRE13A-Can 1dy

PRE13A-EC 1dy

 

PRE13A-MO 1dy

PRE13A-FNMOC 1dy

PRE13A-JMA 1dy

PRE13A-Can 3dy

PRE13A-EC 3dy

 

PRE13A-MO 3dy

PRE13A-FNMOC 3dy

PRE13A-JMA 3dy

 

500

 

CAN anl

EC anl

PRE13A anl

MO anl

FNMOC anl

JMA anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

PRE13A 12hr

MO 12hr

FNMOC 12hr

 

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

PRE13A 1dy

MO 1dy

FNMOC 1dy

JMA 1dy

CAN 3dy

EC 3dy

PRE13A 3dy

MO 3dy

FNMOC 3dy

JMA 3dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

PRE13A 12hr error

MO 12hr error

FNMOC 12hr error

 

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

PRE13A 1dy error

MO 1dy error

FNMOC 1dy error

JMA 1dy error

CAN 3dy error

EC 3dy error

PRE13A 3dy error

MO 3dy error

FNMOC 3dy error

JMA 3dy error

PRE13A-Can anl

PRE13A-EC anl

 

PRE13A-MO anl

PRE13A-FNMOC anl

PRE13A-JMA anl

PRE13A-Can 12hr

PRE13A-EC 12hr

 

PRE13A-MO 12hr

PRE13A-FNMOC 12hr

 

PRE13A-Can 1dy

PRE13A-EC 1dy

 

PRE13A-MO 1dy

PRE13A-FNMOC 1dy

PRE13A-JMA 1dy

PRE13A-Can 3dy

PRE13A-EC 3dy

 

PRE13A-MO 3dy

PRE13A-FNMOC 3dy

PRE13A-JMA 3dy

 

850

 

CAN anl

EC anl

PRE13A anl

MO anl

FNMOC anl

JMA anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

PRE13A 12hr

MO 12hr

FNMOC 12hr

 

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

PRE13A 1dy

MO 1dy

FNMOC 1dy

JMA 1dy

CAN 3dy

EC 3dy

PRE13A 3dy

MO 3dy

FNMOC 3dy

JMA 3dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

PRE13A 12hr error

MO 12hr error

FNMOC 12hr error

 

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

PRE13A 1dy error

MO 1dy error

FNMOC 1dy error

JMA 1dy error

CAN 3dy error

EC 3dy error

PRE13A 3dy error

MO 3dy error

FNMOC 3dy error

JMA 3dy error

PRE13A-Can anl

PRE13A-EC anl

 

PRE13A-MO anl

PRE13A-FNMOC anl

PRE13A-JMA anl

PRE13A-Can 12hr

PRE13A-EC 12hr

 

PRE13A-MO 12hr

PRE13A-FNMOC 12hr

 

PRE13A-Can 1dy

PRE13A-EC 1dy

 

PRE13A-MO 1dy

PRE13A-FNMOC 1dy

PRE13A-JMA 1dy

PRE13A-Can 3dy

PRE13A-EC 3dy

 

PRE13A-MO 3dy

PRE13A-FNMOC 3dy

PRE13A-JMA 3dy

 

Transient eddy kinetic energy

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anl

200 12hr

200 1dy

200 3dy

850 anl

850 12hr

850 1dy

850 3dy

 

Zonal Mean 12 Hour Errors

 

CAN

EC

PRE13A

FNMOC

MO

 

Zonal Mean 1-Day Errors

 

CAN

EC

PRE13A

FNMOC

MO

JMA

 

Zonal Mean 3-Day Errors

 

CAN

EC

PRE13A

FNMOC

MO

JMA

 

Zonal Mean Differences

 

ANL

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

PRE13A-JMA

12 hour

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

 

1 day

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

PRE13A-JMA

3 day

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

PRE13A-JMA

 

20S-20N Differences

 

ANL

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

PRE13A-JMA

12 hour

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

 

1 day

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

PRE13A-JMA

3 day

PRE13A-CAN

PRE13A-EC

PRE13A-FNMOC

PRE13A-MO

PRE13A-JMA