A Comparison of GFS Analyses and Forecasts to Other Centers

 

September-November 2010 000 GMT

 

Height

 

500 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

RMS

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Difference in analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

RMS Error

 

Zonal mean-1day

 

Zonal mean-3day

 

40-60N-1day

 

40-60N-3day

 

 

 

1 day

 

EC

GFS

 

Differences in 1 day RMS errors

 

GFS-EC

 

3 day

 

EC

GFS

 

Differences in 3 day RMS errors

 

GFS-EC

 

RMS Difference-Analyses

 

Zonal mean

 

Zonal mean-ocean

 

40-50N

 

Regional

 

GFS-EC

 

 

 

 

 

Wind Magnitude

 

Zonal means

 

Analyses

 

EC

GFS

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

30-40N

 

Analyses

 

EC

GFS

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Equator

 

Analyses

 

EC

GFS

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

 

200 hPa

 

30-40N 3 dy

 

Analyses

 

EC

GFS

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

850 hPa

 

Analyses

 

EC

GFS

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Average of daily RMS differences in winds between centers

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anal

500 anal

850 anal

 

EC-GFS

 

Equator

 

EC-GFS

 

200 hPa

 

ECMWF-GFS

 

500 hPa

 

 

850 hPa

 

ECMWF-GFS

ECMWF-GFS

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

200 hPa 1 day

500 hPa 1 day

850 hPa 1 day

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

200 hPa 3 day

500 hPa 3 day

850 hPa 3 day

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

20S-20N

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

 

200 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

500 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

850 hPa

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Normalized RMS Wind Error

 

(Normalized by square root of transient eddy kinetic energy in forecasts)

 

Zonal means

 

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

200 hPa 1 day

500 hPa 1 day

850 hPa 1 day

 

3 day errors

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EC

GFS

 

200 hPa 3 day

500 hPa 3 day

850 hPa 3 day

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

20S-20N

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

 

200 hPa

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

500 hPa

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

850 hPa

 

 

1 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

3 day errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-EC

 

Wind

 

Western Hemisphere

 

200

 

EC anl

GFS anl

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

EC 3dy

GFS 3dy

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

EC 3dy error

GFS 3dy error

GFS-EC anl

GFS-EC 1dy

GFS-EC 3dy

 

500

 

EC anl

GFS anl

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

EC 3dy

GFS 3dy

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

EC 3dy error

GFS 3dy error

GFS-EC anl

GFS-EC 1dy

GFS-EC 3dy

 

850

 

EC anl

GFS anl

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

EC 3dy

GFS 3dy

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

EC 3dy error

GFS 3dy error

GFS-EC anl

GFS-EC 1dy

GFS-EC 3dy

 

Transient eddy kinetic energy

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anl

200 1dy

200 3dy

850 anl

850 1dy

850 3dy

 

 

Zonal Mean 1-Day Errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Zonal Mean 3-Day Errors

 

EC

GFS

 

Zonal Mean Differences

 

ANL

GFS-EC

1 day

GFS-EC

3 day

GFS-EC

 

20S-20N Differences

 

ANL

GFS-EC

1 day

GFS-EC

3 day

GFS-EC