A Comparison of GFS Analyses and Forecasts to Other Centers

 

May 2007

 

Height

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

JMA

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

GFS-JMA

 

Can-UK

EC-Can

EC-UK

 

 

RMS

 

12 hour  errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

JMA

 

Difference in analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

GFS-JMA

 

Can-UK

EC-Can

EC-UK

 

 

RMS Error

 

Zonal mean-12h

 

Zonal mean-1day

 

Zonal mean JMA-1day

 

40-60N-12 hours

 

40-60N-1day

 

40-60N JMA-1day

 

12hour

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Differences in 12 hour RMS errors

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

 

1 day

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

JMA

 

Differences in 1 day RMS errors

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

GFS-JMA

 

RMS Difference-Analyses

 

Zonal mean

 

Zonal mean-JMA

 

Zonal mean-ocean

 

Zonal mean-JMA-ocean

 

40-50N

 

40-50N JMA

 

Regional

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

GFS-JMA

 

Can-UK

EC-Can

EC-UK

 

 

Wind Magnitude

 

Zonal means

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

30-40N

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

fnmoc

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

fnmoc

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Equator

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

200 hPa

 

30-40N

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

12 hour  errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

850 hPa

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

RMS Wind Error

 

Zonal means

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

200 hPa

850 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

200 hPa

850 hPa

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

20S-20N

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

 

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

 

 

 

200 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

850 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

FNOC

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

GFS-FNOC

Can-UK

Can-EC

EC-UK

 

 

 

Wind

 

Western Hemisphere

 

200

 

CAN anl

EC anl

GFS anl

MO anl

FNMOC anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

GFS 12hr

MO 12hr

FNMOC 12hr

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

MO 1dy

FNMOC 1dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

GFS 12hr error

MO 12hr error

FNMOC 12hr error

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

MO 1dy error

FNMOC 1dy error

GFS-Can anl

GFS-EC anl

 

GFS-MO anl

GFS-FNOC anl

GFS-Can 12hr

GFS-EC 12hr

 

GFS-MO 12hr

GFS-FNOC 12hr

GFS-Can 1dy

GFS-EC 1dy

 

GFS-MO 1dy

GFS-FNOC 1dy

 

500

 

CAN anl

EC anl

GFS anl

MO anl

FNMOC anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

GFS 12hr

MO 12hr

FNMOC 12hr

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

MO 1dy

FNMOC 1dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

GFS 12hr error

MO 12hr error

FNOC 12hr error

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

MO 1dy error

FNOC 1dy error

GFS-Can anl

GFS-EC anl

 

GFS-MO anl

GFS-FNOC anl

GFS-Can 12hr

GFS-EC 12hr

 

GFS-MO 12hr

GFS-FNOC 12hr

GFS-Can 1dy

GFS-EC 1dy

 

GFS-MO 1dy

GFS-FNOC 1dy

 

850

 

CAN anl

EC anl

GFS anl

MO anl

FNMOC anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

GFS 12hr

MO 12hr

FNMOC 12hr

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

MO 1dy

FNMOC 1dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

GFS 12hr error

MO 12hr error

FNOC 12hr error

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

MO 1dy error

FNOC 1dy error

GFS-Can anl

GFS-EC anl

 

GFS-MO anl

GFS-FNOC anl

GFS-Can 12hr

GFS-EC 12hr

 

GFS-MO 12hr

GFS-FNOC 12hr

GFS-Can 1dy

GFS-EC 1dy

 

GFS-MO 1dy

GFS-FNOC 1dy

 

Transient eddy kinetic energy

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anl

200 12hr

200 1dy

850 anl

850 12hr

850 1dy

 

Zonal Mean 12 Hour Errors

 

CAN

EC

GFS

FNOC

MO

 

Zonal Mean 1-Day Errors

 

CAN

EC

GFS

FNOC

MO

 

Zonal Mean Differences

 

ANL

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-FNOC

GFS-MO

12 hour

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-FNOC

GFS-MO

1 day

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-FNOC

GFS-MO

 

20S-20N Differences

 

ANL

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-FNOC

GFS-MO

12 hour

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-FNOC

GFS-MO

1 day

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-FNOC

GFS-MO