A Comparison of GFS Analyses and Forecasts to Other Centers

 

December 2009-February 2010

 

Height

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

EC-UK

 

RMS

 

12 hour  errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Difference in analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

EC-UK

 

RMS Error

 

Zonal mean-12h

 

Zonal mean-1day

 

Zonal mean-3day

 

40-60N-12 hours

 

40-60N-1day

 

40-60N-3day

 

 

12hour

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Differences in 12 hour RMS errors

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

1 day

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Differences in 1 day RMS errors

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

3 day

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Differences in 3 day RMS errors

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

RMS Difference-Analyses

 

Zonal mean

 

Zonal mean-ocean

 

40-50N

 

Regional

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Wind Magnitude

 

Zonal means

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

30-40N

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Equator

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

200 hPa

 

30-40N 12 hr

 

30-40N 3 dy

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

12 hour  errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

EC-UK

 

850 hPa

 

Analyses

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between Analyses

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Average of daily RMS differences in winds between centers

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anal

500 anal

850 anal

200 12 hr fcsts

500 12 hr fcsts

850 12 hr fcsts

 

CAN-GFS

EC-GFS

MO-GFS

 

 

EC-MO

 

Equator

 

CAN-GFS

EC-GFS

MO-GFS

 

 

EC-MO

 

200 hPa

 

CAN-GFS

ECMWF-GFS

MO-GFS

 

 

ECMWF-MO

 

500 hPa

 

CAN-GFS

ECMWF-GFS

MO-GFS

 

 

ECMWF-MO

 

850 hPa

 

CAN-GFS

ECMWF-GFS

MO-GFS

 

 

ECMWF-MO

 

RMS Wind Error

 

Zonal means

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

200 hPa

500 hPa

850 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

200 hPa 1 day

500 hPa 1 day

850 hPa 1 day

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

200 hPa 3 day

500 hPa 3 day

850 hPa 3 day

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

20S-20N

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

200 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

850 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

EC-UK

 

Normalized RMS Wind Error

 

(Normalized by square root of transient eddy kinetic energy in forecasts)

 

Zonal means

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

200 hPa

500 hPa

850 hPa

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

200 hPa 1 day

500 hPa 1 day

850 hPa 1 day

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

200 hPa 3 day

500 hPa 3 day

850 hPa 3 day

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour  forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

20S-20N

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

 

200 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

500 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

850 hPa

 

12 hour errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

1 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

3 day errors

 

Can

EC

GFS

UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 12 hour forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 1-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Time-Mean Differences between 3-day forecasts

 

GFS-Can

GFS-EC

GFS-UK

 

Wind

 

Western Hemisphere

 

200

 

CAN anl

EC anl

GFS anl

MO anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

GFS 12hr

MO 12hr

 

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

MO 1dy

CAN 3dy

EC 3dy

GFS 3dy

MO 3dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

GFS 12hr error

MO 12hr error

 

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

MO 1dy error

CAN 3dy error

EC 3dy error

GFS 3dy error

MO 3dy error

GFS-Can anl

GFS-EC anl

 

GFS-MO anl

GFS-Can 12hr

GFS-EC 12hr

 

GFS-MO 12hr

 

GFS-Can 1dy

GFS-EC 1dy

 

GFS-MO 1dy

GFS-Can 3dy

GFS-EC 3dy

 

GFS-MO 3dy

 

500

 

CAN anl

EC anl

GFS anl

MO anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

GFS 12hr

MO 12hr

 

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

MO 1dy

CAN 3dy

EC 3dy

GFS 3dy

MO 3dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

GFS 12hr error

MO 12hr error

 

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

MO 1dy error

CAN 3dy error

EC 3dy error

GFS 3dy error

MO 3dy error

GFS-Can anl

GFS-EC anl

 

GFS-MO anl

GFS-Can 12hr

GFS-EC 12hr

 

GFS-MO 12hr

 

GFS-Can 1dy

GFS-EC 1dy

 

GFS-MO 1dy

GFS-Can 3dy

GFS-EC 3dy

 

GFS-MO 3dy

 

850

 

CAN anl

EC anl

GFS anl

MO anl

CAN 12hr

EC 12hr

GFS 12hr

MO 12hr

 

CAN 1dy

EC 1dy

GFS 1dy

MO 1dy

CAN 3dy

EC 3dy

GFS 3dy

MO 3dy

CAN 12hr error

EC 12hr error

GFS 12hr error

MO 12hr error

 

CAN 1dy error

EC 1dy error

GFS 1dy error

MO 1dy error

CAN 3dy error

EC 3dy error

GFS 3dy error

MO 3dy error

GFS-Can anl

GFS-EC anl

 

GFS-MO anl

GFS-Can 12hr

GFS-EC 12hr

 

GFS-MO 12hr

 

GFS-Can 1dy

GFS-EC 1dy

 

GFS-MO 1dy

GFS-Can 3dy

GFS-EC 3dy

 

GFS-MO 3dy

 

Transient eddy kinetic energy

 

Zonal Mean

 

200 anl

200 12hr

200 1dy

200 3dy

850 anl

850 12hr

850 1dy

850 3dy

 

Zonal Mean 12 Hour Errors

 

CAN

EC

GFS

MO

 

Zonal Mean 1-Day Errors

 

CAN

EC

GFS

MO

 

Zonal Mean 3-Day Errors

 

CAN

EC

GFS

MO

 

Zonal Mean Differences

 

ANL

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

12 hour

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

 

1 day

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

3 day

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

 

20S-20N Differences

 

ANL

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

12 hour

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

 

1 day

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO

3 day

GFS-CAN

GFS-EC

GFS-MO