Environmental Modeling Center, NWS

SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR NOV 1998

SUBSECTIONS

AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

from the znl files

TEMPERATURE	ZONAL WIND	SQUARED DIVERGENCE	MOISTURE
global			global
60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S

ZONAL MEAN ERRORS verified against global analyses

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

TEMPERATURE

60N	50N	30N	EQUATOR	25S	60S
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5dy error	5dy error	5dy error	5dy error	5dy error	5dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error

REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb	925 mb	850 mb	700 mb	500 mb
		anl,15dy fcst	anl,5dy fcst	anl,5dy fcst
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1dy,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1,3dy error
5dy error	5dy error	5dy error	5dy error	5dy error
5dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

MODEL PHYSICS

AREA-AVERAGED SURFACE FLUXES

from the znl files

Precip and evap	Conv and large-scale precip	Rain coverage	Sens heat and sfc net sw
global	global	global	global
land	land	land	land
ocean	ocean	ocean	ocean

AREA-AVERAGED DIABATIC HEATING COMPONENTS

from the znl files

Deep convection	Shallow convection	Vertical diffusion	Large-scale	Short wave	Long wave	Total diabatic heating
global	global	global	global	global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N		30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N		30S-30N		30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S

AREA-AVERAGED MOISTENING AND ACCEL BY VERTICAL DIFFUSION

from the znl files

Moist due to deep conv	Moist due to shallow conv	Moist due to vert diff	Zonal accel by vert diff	Merid accel by vert diff
global	global	global	global	global
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S

PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip	0-6hr,0-24hr	dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg	168-180,192-204hr
znl mean land, ocean	48-72hr,96-120hr	dy5-fg,dy10-fg	180-192,204-216hr
	216-240hr		9 minus 8, 8.5 minus 7.5 dy

EVAPORATION

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m	dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin
dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m	dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin

PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg

ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg	equator
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg