SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR NOV 1998


SUBSECTIONS

Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors

MODEL PHYSICS

Area-averaged surface fluxes
Area-averaged diabatic heating components
Area-averaged moistening and accel components
Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
Low clouds
Zonal sfc stress


AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

from the znl files

TEMPERATURE

ZONAL WIND

SQUARED DIVERGENCE

MOISTURE

global

global

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S


ZONAL MEAN ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

TEMPERATURE

ZONAL WIND

MERIDIONAL WIND

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

VERTICAL MOTION

6 hr error

6 hr error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

5 dy error

5 dy error

10, 15 dy error


LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N

EQUATOR

45S

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N

50N

30N

EQUATOR

25S

60S

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error


REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1dy,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1,3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

5dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error


MODEL PHYSICS


AREA-AVERAGED SURFACE FLUXES

from the znl files

Precip and evap

Conv and large-scale precip

Rain coverage

Sens heat and sfc net sw

global

global

global

global

land

land

land

land

ocean

ocean

ocean

ocean


AREA-AVERAGED DIABATIC HEATING COMPONENTS

from the znl files

Deep convection

Shallow convection

Vertical diffusion

Large-scale

Short wave

Long wave

Total diabatic heating

global

global

global

global

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S


AREA-AVERAGED MOISTENING AND ACCEL BY VERTICAL DIFFUSION

from the znl files

Moist due to deep conv

Moist due to shallow conv

Moist due to vert diff

Zonal accel by vert diff

Merid accel by vert diff

global

global

global

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S


PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

168-180,192-204hr

znl mean land, ocean

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

180-192,204-216hr

216-240hr

9 minus 8, 8.5 minus 7.5 dy


EVAPORATION

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin


PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 5dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg


ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

first guess, 5dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg