Environmental Modeling Center, NWS

SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR MAR 1999

SUBSECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors
Transient eddy kinetic energy

MODEL PHYSICS

Area-averaged surface fluxes
Time series of area-averaged precipitation
Area-averaged diabatic heating components
Time series of large-scale heating
Area-averaged moistening and accel components
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Zonal gravity wave drag
Meridional gravity wave drag
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface

AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

from the znl files

TEMPERATURE	ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	VERTICAL VELOCITY	SQUARED DIVERGENCE	MOISTURE
global	global			global	global
60-90N	60-90N				60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S				60-90S

ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT	TEMPERATURE	ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	REL HUMID	VERT MOTION	HORIZ DIV
		anl, 7dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means
		anl, 15dy means	3dy, 5dy means		3dy, 5dy means	3dy, 7dy means
			7dy, 8dy means		7dy, 8dy means
			10dy, 15dy means	anl, 15dy means	10dy, 15dy means	anl, 15dy means
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error
5, 7 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5 dy error	5, 7 dy error
			7, 8 dy error	7, 8 dy error	7, 8 dy error	7, 8 dy error
10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N	EQUATOR	45S
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N	45N	30N	EQUATOR	30S	60S
anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N	5N	20S	30S
anl,1dy mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,1dy mean
3,7dy mean	3,7dy mean	3,7dy mean	3,7dy mean
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	REL HUMID	VERT VELOC
anl,7dy mean	anl,7dy mean	anl,7dy mean	anl,1dy mean
			3,7dy mean
anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb	500 mb	250 mb
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb	925 mb	850 mb	700 mb	500 mb
anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst
6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error	6 hr error
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb	250 mb	150 mb
anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb	850 mb	400 mb	150 mb
anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst
anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6hr error	6hr error	6hr error	6hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb	500 mb
anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst
5,7dy fcst	5,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
6hr error	6hr error
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb
anl,1dy fcst
3,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst
6hr error
1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error
7,8dy error
10,15dy error

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

zonal mean	850 mb	200 mb
anl,5dy fcst	anl,5dy fcst	anl,5dy fcst
	5dy error	5dy error

MODEL PHYSICS

AREA-AVERAGED SURFACE FLUXES

from the znl files

Precip and evap	Conv and large-scale precip	Rain coverage	Sens heat and sfc net sw	Soil moisture
global	global	global	global
land	land	land	land	land
ocean	ocean	ocean	ocean

TIME SERIES OF AREA-AVERAGED PRECIPITATION

from the znl files

First time step	0-6hr	First time step and 0-6h
global	global
30-60N	30-60N
30-60N bare land	30-60N bare land
30-60N ocean	30-60N ocean
		60-90S

AREA-AVERAGED DIABATIC HEATING COMPONENTS

from the znl files

Deep convection	Shallow convection	Vertical diffusion	Large-scale	Short wave	Long wave	Total diabatic heating
global	global	global	global	global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S

TIME SERIES OF AREA-AVERAGED LARGE-SCALE HEATING

from the znl files

First time step	0-6hr	First time step and 0-6h
60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N
30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S
		60-90S layer 5

AREA-AVERAGED MOISTENING AND ACCEL BY VERTICAL DIFFUSION

from the znl files

Moist due to deep conv	Moist due to shallow conv	Moist due to vert diff	Zonal accel by vert diff	Merid accel by vert diff
global	global	global	global	global
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S

PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip	0-6hr,0-24hr	dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg
znl mean land, ocean	48-72hr,96-120hr	dy5-fg,dy10-fg
	216-240hr	SSMI estimate

UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr	dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg
48-72hr,96-120hr	dy5-fg,dy10-fg
216-240hr	indep estimate

EVAPORATION

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m	dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin
dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m	dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin

PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg

MIDDLE CLOUDS

first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
	dy5-fg

HIGH CLOUDS

first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
	dy5-fg

TOTAL CLOUD COVER

first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
	dy5-fg

ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg	equator
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg

MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean
zonal mean land, ocean

ZONAL GRAVITY WAVE DRAG

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
		dy5-fg

MERIDIONAL GRAVITY WAVE DRAG

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
		dy5-fg

OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
	satellite olr from CPC	dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy3-dy1,dy5-dy1
zonal mean over land, ocean

NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean over land, ocean		dy5-fg

NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean over land, ocean		dy5-fg