SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR JUNE 1999

Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors

VARIABILITY
Transient eddy kinetic energy
Longitude-time cross-sections

MODEL PHYSICS

ZNL FILES
Global mean angular momentum and torques
Area-averaged surface fluxes
Time series of area-averaged precipitation
Area-averaged diabatic heating components
Time series of large-scale heating
Area-averaged moistening and accel components
PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
CLOUDS
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Zonal gravity wave drag
Meridional gravity wave drag
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface


AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

from the znl files

TEMPERATURE

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

VERTICAL VELOCITY

SQUARED DIVERGENCE

MOISTURE

global

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT

TEMPERATURE

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT MOTION

HORIZ DIV

anl, 7dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 15dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 7dy means

7dy, 8dy means

7dy, 8dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

7, 8 dy error

7, 8 dy error

7, 8 dy error

7, 8 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error


LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N

EQUATOR

45S

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N

45N

30N

EQUATOR

30S

60S

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N

5N

20S

30S

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT VELOC

anl,7dy mean

anl,7dy mean

anl,7dy mean

anl,1dy mean

3,7dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error



REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb

850 mb

400 mb

150 mb

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb

500 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

5,7dy fcst

5,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6hr error

6hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb

anl,1dy fcst

3,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6hr error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

7,8dy error

10,15dy error


TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

zonal mean

850 mb

200 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

1dy error

1dy error

anl,3dy fcst

anl,3dy fcst

anl,3dy fcst

3dy error

3dy error

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

anl,5dy fcst

5dy error

5dy error

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

7dy error

7dy error

anl,8dy fcst

anl,8dy fcst

anl,8dy fcst

8dy error

8dy error

anl,10dy fcst

anl,10dy fcst

anl,10dy fcst

10dy error

10dy error

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

15dy error

15dy error

LONGITUDE-TIME CROSS-SECTIONS

850 mb meridional wind

15N

Equator

anl

anl

3dy fcsts

3dy fcsts

3dy errors

3dy errors

200 mb meridional wind

45N

15N

Equator

45S

anl

anl

anl

anl

3dy fcsts

3dy fcsts

3dy fcsts

3dy fcsts

3dy errors

3dy errors

3dy errors

3dy errors


MODEL PHYSICS


GLOBAL MEAN ANGULAR MOMENTUM AND TORQUES

from the 0-6 hr fcsts

Change in angular momentum vs torques

Mountain, sfc stress and gravity wave draw torques

global

global


AREA-AVERAGED SURFACE FLUXES

from the znl files

Precip and evap

Conv and large-scale precip

Rain coverage

Sens heat and sfc net sw

Soil moisture

global

global

global

global

land

land

land

land

land

ocean

ocean

ocean

ocean


TIME SERIES OF AREA-AVERAGED PRECIPITATION

from the znl files

First time step

0-6hr

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N bare land

30-60N bare land

30-60N ocean

30-60N ocean

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S


AREA-AVERAGED DIABATIC HEATING COMPONENTS

from the znl files

Deep convection

Shallow convection

Vertical diffusion

Large-scale

Short wave

Long wave

Total diabatic heating

global

global

global

global

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


TIME SERIES OF AREA-AVERAGED LARGE-SCALE HEATING

from the znl files

First time step

0-6hr

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S


AREA-AVERAGED MOISTENING AND ACCEL BY VERTICAL DIFFUSION

from the znl files

Moist due to deep conv

Moist due to shallow conv

Moist due to vert diff

Zonal accel by vert diff

Merid accel by vert diff

global

global

global

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S


PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

znl mean land, ocean

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

SSMI estimate


UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

indep estimate

another indep estimate


EVAPORATION

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin


PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

low clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

day10-fg,dy15-fg


MIDDLE CLOUDS

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

middle clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


HIGH CLOUDS

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

high clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


TOTAL CLOUD COVER

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


ZONAL GRAVITY WAVE DRAG

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

dy5-fg

dy10,15-fg


MERIDIONAL GRAVITY WAVE DRAG

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

dy5-fg

dy10,15-fg


OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

satellite olr from CPC

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy3-dy1,dy5-dy1

zonal mean over land, ocean

june 84-90 SRB

dy10-dy1,dy15-dy1

zonal mean june 84-90 SRB


NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg