SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN PRE13A GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR DEC. 09-FEB. 10
Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors
Longitude-time diagrams
Transient eddy kinetic energy
Root-mean-square wind errors

MODEL PHYSICS

PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
CLOUDS
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Zonal 10m wind
Meridional 10m wind
10m wind speed
10m wind horizontal divergence
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface


AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


WIND MAGNITUDE

WIND MAGNITUDE OVER LAND

WIND MAGNITUDE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN HEIGHT verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN

ZONAL MEAN OVER LAND

ZONAL MEAN OVER OCEAN

100 hPa

100 hPa

100 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa


AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN HEIGHT verified against global analyses

HEIGHT

HEIGHT OVER LAND

HEIGHT OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S

500 hPa, 40N


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN TEMPERATURE verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

100 hPa

100 hPa

100 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

600 hPa

600 hPa

600 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa


AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN TEMPERATURE verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

40N

30S

77.5S

600 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

900 hPa

900 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

40N 80W

40N 110W

40N 115E

850 hPa 80W

850 hPa 110W

850 hPa 115E


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN WIND MAGNITUDE verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN WIND MAGNITUDE

ZONAL MEAN WIND MAGNITUDE OVER LAND

ZONAL MEAN WIND MAGNITUDE OVER OCEAN

10 hPa

10 hPa

10 hPa

100 hPa

100 hPa

100 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

600 hPa

600 hPa

600 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa


AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN WIND MAGNITUDE verified against global analyses

WIND MAGNITUDE

WIND MAGNITUDE OVER LAND

WIND MAGNITUDE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

40N

30S

700 hPa

700 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

900 hPa

900 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

40N 80W

40N 110W

40N 115E

850 hPa 80W

850 hPa 110W

850 hPa 115E


ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT 000 GMT

TEMPERATURE 000 GMT

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT MOTION

HORIZ DIV 000 GMT

anl, 8dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

6 hr means

6 hr means

6 hr means

anl, 15dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 8dy means

8dy, 9dy means

8dy, 9dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

5, 8 dy error

5, 8 dy error

5, 8 dy error

5 dy error

5, 8 dy error

5, 8 dy error

5, 8 dy error

9 dy error, 9dy-8dy

9 dy error, 9dy-8dy

8, 9 dy error

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9 dy error, 9dy-8dy

9 dy error, 9dy-8dy

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error


LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N 000 GMT

EQUATOR 000 GMT

45S 000 GMT

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N 000 GMT

45N 000 GMT

30N 000 GMT

EQUATOR 000 GMT

30S 000 GMT

60S 000 GMT

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N 000 GMT

5N 000 GMT

10S 000 GMT

30S 000 GMT

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

3,8dy mean

3,8dy mean

3,8dy mean

3,8dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT VELOC

anl,8dy mean

anl,8dy mean

anl,1dy mean

6 hr mean

3,5dy mean

8,9dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

10dy,15dy mean

6 hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error


REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb 000 GMT

500 mb 000 GMT

250 mb 000 GMT

100 mb 000 GMT

50 mb 000 GMT

10 mb 000 GMT

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

9dy,9dy-8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb 000 GMT

925 mb 000 GMT

850 mb 000 GMT

700 mb 000 GMT

500 mb 000 GMT

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

300 mb 000 GMT

200 mb 000 GMT

100 mb 000 GMT

50 mb 000 GMT

10 mb 000 GMT

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

8dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

300 mb

200 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

8dy,10dy fcst

8dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VECTOR WIND

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

8dy error

8dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

WIND STREAMFUNCTION

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

8dy error

8dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

NORTH AMERICA

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

200 mb

150 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3 ,5dy fcst

8, 10dy fcst

8, 10dy fcst

8, 10dy fcst

8, 10dy fcst

8, 10dy fcst

8, 10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

5, 8dy error

5, 8dy error

5, 8dy error

5, 8dy error

5, 8dy error

5, 8dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb

850 mb

400 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy, 9dy-8dy error

9dy, 9dy-8dy error

9dy, 9dy-8dy error

9dy, 9dy-8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb

500 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

6 hr fcst

6 hr fcst

3,5dy fcst

3,5dy fcst

8,9dy fcst

8,9dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy, 9dy-8dy error

9dy, 9dy-8dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb 000 GMT

150 mb 000 GMT

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

6 hr fcst

6 hr fcst

3,8dy fcst

3,8dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,8dy error

5,8dy error

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

9dy error, 9dy-8dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

LONGITUDE-TIME DIAGRAMS

Geopotential Height 500 hPa

40N

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

50S

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

Temperature 850 hPa

35N

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

50S

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1 dy fcsts

analyses for 3 dy fcsts

analyses for 5 dy fcsts

analyses for 8 dy fcsts

analyses for 9 dy fcsts

analyses for 10 dy fcsts

analyses for 15 dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 9dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

Meridional Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1 dy fcsts

analyses for 3 dy fcsts

analyses for 5 dy fcsts

analyses for 8 dy fcsts

analyses for 9 dy fcsts

analyses for 10 dy fcsts

analyses for 15 dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 9dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 9dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 9 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb 5dy running means

60N

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 9dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 9 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

Meridional Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 9dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 9 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

9 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 9 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 9dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

9 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 9dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

area average

area ave normalized by inital teke mb

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

zonal mean

850 mb

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY IN THE TROPICS

zonal mean

850 mb

200 mb

equator

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst

TRANSIENT EDDY MERIDIONAL HEAT FLUX

zonal mean

850 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

ZONAL MEAN TRANSIENT EDDY POLEWARD FLUX OF ZONAL MOMENTUM

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 8dy fcst errors

9dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

RMS WIND ERROR

850 mb

200 mb

6hr fcst

6hr fcst

1dy fcst

1dy fcst

3dy fcst

3dy fcst

5dy fcst

5dy fcst

8dy fcst

8dy fcst

9dy fcst

9dy fcst

10dy fcst

10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

NORMALIZED

850 mb

200 mb

6hr fcst

6hr fcst

1dy fcst

1dy fcst

3dy fcst

3dy fcst

5dy fcst

5dy fcst

8dy fcst

8dy fcst

9dy fcst

9dy fcst

10dy fcst

10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

AREA-AVERAGED CLOUD LIQUID WATER MIXING RATIO

Cloud Liquid Water

Cloud Liquid Water Over Land

Cloud Liquid Water Over Ocean

global

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

ZONAL MEAN CLOUD LIQUID WATER MIXING RATIO

anl

1dy minus anl

8dy and 9dy

8dy-anl and 9d-8d

5dy and 15dy

3dy-anl and 5d-anl

10dy-anl and 15d-anl


AREA-AVERAGED CLOUD LIQUID WATER DRIFTS

Cloud Liquid Water

Cloud Liquid Water OVER LAND

Cloud Liquid Water OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S


MODEL PHYSICS


GLOBAL MEAN DRIFTS

gbl mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-192h

gbl mean precip every 12 hrs 204h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip every 12 hrs 204h-384h

gbl mean evap every 6 hrs 6h-192h

gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 204h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 204h-384h

gbl mean P,E every 6 hrs 6h-192h

gbl mean P,E every 12 hrs 204h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean P,E every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean gbl mean P,E every 12 hrs 204h-384h

gbl mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-192h

gbl mean precip water every 12 hrs 204h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip water every 12 hrs 204h-384h


AREA MEAN DRIFTS

precip 30-60N every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean precip 30-60N every 6 hrs 6h-192h

precip 20S-20N every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean precip 20S-20N every 6 hrs 6h-192h

precip 30-60S every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean precip 30-60S every 6 hrs 6h-192h


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS

zonal mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-192h

zonal mean precip drift every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip drift every 6 hrs 6h-192h

zonal mean evap every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean zonal mean evap every 6 hrs 6-192h

zonal mean evap drift every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean zonal mean evap drift every 6 hrs 6-192h

zonal mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-192h

zonal mean precip water drift every 6 hrs 6h-192h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip water drift every 6 hrs 6h-192h


PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

znl mean land, ocean

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg


UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg


EVAPORATION

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin


PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

day10-fg,dy15-fg


MIDDLE CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

day10-fg,dy15-fg


HIGH CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


TOTAL CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


ZONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


10-M WIND SPEED

zonal mean

first guess, 1dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

3 dy, 5 dy

dy5-fg

10 dy, 15 dy

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


10-M WIND HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

zonal mean

first guess, 1dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

3 dy, 5 dy

dy5-fg

10 dy, 15 dy

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-f06,dy3-f06

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-f06,dy10-f06

dy15-f06


NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg