Environmental Modeling Center, NWS

SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR DEC 1998

SUBSECTIONS

Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors

MODEL PHYSICS

Area-averaged diabatic heating components
Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
Low clouds
Zonal sfc stress
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface

AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

from the znl files

TEMPERATURE	ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	VERTICAL VELOCITY	SQUARED DIVERGENCE	MOISTURE
global	global			global	global
60-90N	60-90N				60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S		60-90S		60-90S

ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT	TEMPERATURE	ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	REL HUMID	VERT MOTION	HORIZ DIV
		anl, 7dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means	anl, 1dy means
		anl, 15dy means	3dy, 5dy means		3dy, 5dy means	3dy, 7dy means
			7dy, 8dy means		7dy, 8dy means	anl, 7dy means
			10dy, 15dy means	anl, 15dy means	10dy, 15dy means	anl, 15dy means
1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error	1, 3 dy error
5, 7 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5 dy error	5, 7 dy error	5 dy error	5, 7 dy error
			7, 8 dy error	7, 8 dy error	7, 8 dy error	7, 8 dy error
10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error	10, 15 dy error

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

CENTER>

60N	45N	30N	EQUATOR	30S	60S
anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N	5N	20S	30S
anl,1dy mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,1dy mean	anl,1dy mean
3,7dy mean	3,7dy mean	3,7dy mean	3,7dy mean
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND	MERID WIND	REL HUMID	VERT VELOC
anl,7dy mean	anl,7dy mean	anl,7dy mean	anl,1dy mean
			3,7dy mean
anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean	anl,15dy mean
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb	500 mb	250 mb
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb	925 mb	850 mb	700 mb	500 mb
anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst		anl,15dy fcst
1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error	1,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb	250 mb	150 mb
anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error	10,15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

400 mb	150 mb
anl,7dy fcst	anl,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb	500 mb
anl,1dy fcst	anl,1dy fcst
5,7dy fcst	5,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst	anl,15dy fcst
1dy,3dy error	1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error	5,7dy error
10,15dy error	10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb
anl,1dy fcst
3,7dy fcst
anl,15dy fcst
1dy,3dy error
5,7dy error
7,8dy error
10,15dy error

MODEL PHYSICS

AREA-AVERAGED DIABATIC HEATING COMPONENTS

from the znl files

Deep convection	Shallow convection	Vertical diffusion	Large-scale	Short wave	Long wave	Total diabatic heating
global	global	global	global	global	global	global
60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N	60-90N
30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N	30-60N
30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N	30S-30N
30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S	30-60S
60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S	60-90S

PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip	0-6hr,0-24hr	dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg
znl mean land, ocean	48-72hr,96-120hr	dy5-fg,dy10-fg
	216-240hr

EVAPORATION

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m	dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin
dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m	dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin

PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg

ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg	equator
zonal mean land, ocean		dy5-fg

OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
	satellite olr from CPC	dy5-fg, dy10-fg
		dy15-fg

NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 5dy	dy3-dy1,dy5-dy1
zonal mean over land, ocean

NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean	first guess, 15dy	dy1-fg,dy3-fg
zonal mean over land, ocean		dy5-fg