SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR AUGUST 2007
Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors
Longitude-time diagrams
Transient eddy kinetic energy
Root-mean-square wind errors

MODEL PHYSICS

PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
CLOUDS
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Zonal 10m wind
Meridional 10m wind
10m wind speed
10m wind horizontal divergence
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface


AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL WIND

ZONAL WIND OVER LAND

ZONAL WIND OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


WIND MAGNITUDE

WIND MAGNITUDE OVER LAND

WIND MAGNITUDE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN HEIGHT verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN

ZONAL MEAN OVER LAND

ZONAL MEAN OVER OCEAN

100 hPa

100 hPa

100 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa


AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN HEIGHT verified against global analyses

HEIGHT

HEIGHT OVER LAND

HEIGHT OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S

500 hPa, 40N

40N 75W

40N 135W

40N 120E

500 hPa 75W

500 hPa 135W

500 hPa 120E


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS IN TEMPERATURE verified against global analyses

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

100 hPa

100 hPa

100 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

500 hPa

600 hPa

600 hPa

600 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa


AREA-AVERAGED DRIFTS IN TEMPERATURE verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

40N

30S

77.5S

600 hPa

700 hPa

700 hPa

850 hPa

850 hPa

900 hPa

900 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

40N 80W

40N 110W

40N 115E

850 hPa 80W

850 hPa 110W

850 hPa 115E


ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT 000 GMT

HEIGHT 1200 GMT

TEMPERATURE 000 GMT

TEMPERATURE 1200 GMT

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT MOTION

HORIZ DIV 000 GMT

HORIZ DIV 1200 GMT

anl, 7dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 12 hr means

6 hr means

6 hr means

6 hr means

anl, 15dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 7dy means

2.5, 6.5 dy means

7dy, 8dy means

7dy, 8dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

anl, 14.5dy means

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1, 3 dy error

12, 60 hr error

1, 3 dy error

12, 60 hr error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

12, 60 hr error

5, 7 dy error

4.5, 6.5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

4.5, 6.5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

4.5, 6.5 dy error

7 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5 dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

7 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5 dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

7, 8 dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8 dy error, 8dy-7dy

8 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5 dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

10, 15 dy error

9.5, 14.5 dy error

10, 15 dy error

9.5, 14.5 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

9.5, 14.5 dy error


LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N 000 GMT

45N 1200 GMT

EQUATOR 000 GMT

EQUATOR 1200 GMT

45S 000 GMT

45S 1200 GMT

anl,15dy fcst

anl,14.5dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,14.5dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,14.5dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N 000 GMT

60N 1200 GMT

45N 000 GMT

45N 1200 GMT

30N 000 GMT

30N 1200 GMT

EQUATOR 000 GMT

EQUATOR 1200 GMT

30S 000 GMT

30S 1200 GMT

60S 000 GMT

60S 1200 GMT

anl,15dy mean

anl,14.5dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,14.5dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,14.5dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,14.5dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,14.5dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,14.5dy mean

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5 error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5 error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5 error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5 error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5 error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5 error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N 000 GMT

25N 1200 GMT

5N 000 GMT

5N 1200 GMT

10S 000 GMT

10S 1200 GMT

30S 000 GMT

30S 1200 GMT

anl,1dy mean

anl,12hr mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,12hr mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,12hr mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,12hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

3,7dy mean

2.5,6.5dy mean

3,7dy mean

2.5,6.5dy mean

3,7dy mean

2.5,6.5dy mean

3,7dy mean

2.5,6.5dy mean

10,15dy mean

9.5,14.5dy mean

10,15dy mean

9.5,14.5dy mean

10,15dy mean

9.5,14.5dy mean

10,15dy mean

9.5,14.5dy mean

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT VELOC

anl,7dy mean

anl,7dy mean

anl,1dy mean

6 hr mean

3,5dy mean

7,8dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

10dy,15dy mean

6 hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error



REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

semi-diurnal tide in analysis

semi-diurnal tide in 6hr fcsts

semi-diurnal tide in 12hr fcsts

semi-diurnal tide in 18hr fcsts

semi-diurnal tide in 24hr fcsts

difference in semi-diurnal tide 6hr fcsts minus analysis

difference in semi-diurnal tide 12hr fcsts minus analysis

difference in semi-diurnal tide 18hr fcsts minus analysis

difference in semi-diurnal tide 24hr fcsts minus analysis

difference in zonal mean hgt 6h-anl 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 12h-6h 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 18h-12h 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 24h-18h 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 6h-anl 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 12h-anl 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 18h-anl 4 times a day

difference in zonal mean hgt 24h-anl 4 times a day

500 mb 0000 GMT

500 mb 0600 GMT

500 mb 1200 GMT

500 mb 1800 GMT

500 mb 4 times GMT

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

12hr error

12hr error

12hr error

12hr error

12hr error

18hr error

18hr error

18hr error

18hr error

18hr error

24hr error

24hr error

24hr error

24hr error

24hr error

anl minus 4 times average

anl minus 4 times average

anl minus 4 times average

anl minus 4 times average

6hr minus 4 times average

6hr minus 4 times average

6hr minus 4 times average

6hr minus 4 times average

12hr minus 4 times average

12hr minus 4 times average

12hr minus 4 times average

12hr minus 4 times average

18hr minus 4 times average

18hr minus 4 times average

18hr minus 4 times average

18hr minus 4 times average

24hr minus 4 times average

24hr minus 4 times average

24hr minus 4 times average

24hr minus 4 times average

z 500 6h minus anl 4 times average

z 500 12h minus 6h 4 times average

z 500 18h minus 12h 4 times average

z 500 24h minus 18h 4 times average

TEMPERATURE (underground masked out)

6hr error

12 hr error

18 hour error

24 hour error 1800 GMT

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

62.5N

62.5N

62.5N

62.5N

900 hPa

900 hPa

900 hPa

900 hPa

Ice

Snow

Wind Magnitude (underground masked out)

analysis

6hr error

12 hr error

18 hour error

24 hour error 1800 GMT

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

Horizontal Divergence (underground masked out)

analysis

6hr error

12 hr error

18 hour error

24 hour error 1800 GMT

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

zonal mean

150 hPa

150 hPa

150 hPa

150 hPa

150 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

200 hPa

250 hPa

250 hPa

250 hPa

250 hPa

250 hPa

0-15N

0-15N

0-15N

0-15N

0-15N

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb 000 GMT

1000 mb 1200 GMT

500 mb 000 GMT

500 mb 1200 GMT

250 mb 000 GMT

250 mb 1200 GMT

100 mb 000 GMT

100 mb 1200 GMT

50 mb 000 GMT

50 mb 1200 GMT

10 mb 000 GMT

10 mb 1200 GMT

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1dy,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1dy,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1dy,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1dy,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1dy,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

7.5dy,7.5dy-6.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb 000 GMT

1000 mb 1200 GMT

925 mb 000 GMT

925 mb 1200 GMT

850 mb 000 GMT

850 mb 1200 GMT

700 mb 000 GMT

700 mb 1200 GMT

500 mb 000 GMT

500 mb 1200 GMT

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12h, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

300 mb 000 GMT

300 mb 1200 GMT

200 mb 000 GMT

200 mb 1200 GMT

100 mb 000 GMT

100 mb 1200 GMT

50 mb 000 GMT

50 mb 1200 GMT

10 mb 000 GMT

10 mb 1200 GMT

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

1,3dy error

12 hr, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

300 mb

200 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VECTOR WIND

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

7dy error

7dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

WIND STREAMFUNCTION

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

7dy error

7dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

NORTH AMERICA

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

200 mb

150 mb

climatology

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3 ,5dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

NORTH AMERICA WIND CROSS-SECTIONS

U at 15N

V at 30N

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb

850 mb

400 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb

500 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

6 hr fcst

6 hr fcst

3,5dy fcst

3,5dy fcst

7,8dy fcst

7,8dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb 000 GMT

200 mb 1200 GMT

150 mb 000 GMT

150 mb 1200 GMT

anl,1dy fcst

anl,12hr fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,12hr fcst

6 hr fcst

6 hr fcst

3,7dy fcst

2.5,6.5dy fcst

3,7dy fcst

2.5,6.5dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,14.5dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,14.5dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

12hr, 2.5dy error

1dy,3dy error

12hr, 2.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

5,7dy error

4.5,6.5dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

7.5dy error, 7.5dy-6.5dy

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

10,15dy error

9.5,14.5dy error

LONGITUDE-TIME DIAGRAMS

Geopotential Height 500 hPa

40N

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

50S

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

Temperature 850 hPa

35N

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

50S

analyses

5dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1 dy fcsts

analyses for 3 dy fcsts

analyses for 5 dy fcsts

analyses for 7 dy fcsts

analyses for 8 dy fcsts

analyses for 10 dy fcsts

analyses for 15 dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

Meridional Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1 dy fcsts

analyses for 3 dy fcsts

analyses for 5 dy fcsts

analyses for 7 dy fcsts

analyses for 8 dy fcsts

analyses for 10 dy fcsts

analyses for 15 dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6 hr fcsts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hr fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 7 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6 hour fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb 5dy running means

60N

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 7 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

Meridional Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 7 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 6hr forecasts

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 6hr forecasts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

area average

area ave normalized by inital teke mb

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

zonal mean

850 mb

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY IN THE TROPICS

zonal mean

850 mb

200 mb

equator

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst

TRANSIENT EDDY MERIDIONAL HEAT FLUX

zonal mean

850 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY POLEWARD FLUX OF ZONAL MOMENTUM

zonal mean

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

6hr fcst errors

6hr fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

STATIONARY EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

STATIONARY EDDY HEAT FLUX

STATIONARY EDDY MOMENTUM FLUX

RMS WIND ERROR

850 mb

200 mb

6hr fcst

6hr fcst

1dy fcst

1dy fcst

3dy fcst

3dy fcst

5dy fcst

5dy fcst

7dy fcst

7dy fcst

8dy fcst

8dy fcst

10dy fcst

10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

NORMALIZED

850 mb

200 mb

6hr fcst

6hr fcst

1dy fcst

1dy fcst

3dy fcst

3dy fcst

5dy fcst

5dy fcst

7dy fcst

7dy fcst

8dy fcst

8dy fcst

10dy fcst

10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

AREA-AVERAGED CLOUD LIQUID WATER MIXING RATIO

Cloud Liquid Water

Cloud Liquid Water Over Land

Cloud Liquid Water Over Ocean

global

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

ZONAL MEAN CLOUD LIQUID WATER MIXING RATIO

anl and 6-hr fcst

6h and 1dy minus anl

1dy and 3dy minus 6hrl

7dy and 8dy

7dy-anl and 8d-7d

5dy and 15dy

3dy-anl and 5d-anl

5dy and 7dy minus 6hr

10dy-anl and 15d-anl

10dy and 15dy minus 6hr


AREA-AVERAGED CLOUD LIQUID WATER DRIFTS

Cloud Liquid Water

Cloud Liquid Water OVER LAND

Cloud Liquid Water OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

20S-20N

20S-20N

20S-20N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

40N

30S

850 hPa

800 hPa

900 hPa

925 hPa

925 hPa

40N 80W

40N 110W

40N 115E

850 hPa 80W

850 hPa 110W

850 hPa 115E


MODEL PHYSICS


GLOBAL MEAN DRIFTS

gbl mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h

gbl mean precip every 12 hrs 192h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip every 12 hrs 192h-384h

gbl mean evap every 6 hrs 6h-180h

gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 192h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 192h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean evap every 12 hrs 192h-384h

gbl mean P,E every 6 hrs 6h-180h

gbl mean P,E every 12 hrs 192h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean P,E every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean gbl mean P,E every 12 hrs 192h-384h

gbl mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h

gbl mean precip water every 12 hrs 192h-384h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean gbl mean precip water every 12 hrs 192h-384h


AREA MEAN DRIFTS

precip 30-60N every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean precip 30-60N every 6 hrs 6h-180h

precip 20S-20N every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean precip 20S-20N every 6 hrs 6h-180h

precip 30-60S every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean precip 30-60S every 6 hrs 6h-180h


ZONAL MEAN DRIFTS

zonal mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip every 6 hrs 6h-180h

zonal mean precip drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h

zonal mean evap every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean zonal mean evap every 6 hrs 6-180h

zonal mean evap drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean zonal mean evap drift every 6 hrs 6-180h

zonal mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip water every 6 hrs 6h-180h

zonal mean precip water drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h

24 hr mean zonal mean precip water drift every 6 hrs 6h-180h


PRECIPITATION

global mean precipitation

global mean precipitation,evaporation every 12 hours

znl mean precip

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

znl mean land, ocean

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

znl mean precip OPI/CAMS

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

OPI/CAMS estimate

znl mean precip 6hr, OPI/CAMS

0-6hr, OPI precip

0-6hr,0-24hr minus OPI precip

znl mean precip 6hr, OPI/CAMS land, ocean

2-3dy,4-5dy minus OPI precip

9-10dy,14-15dy minus OPI precip


PRECIPITATION SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean precipitation

zonal mean land precipitation

zonal mean ocean precipitation

precip 0-6h

precip 6-12h

precip 12-18h

precip 18-24h

precip 6-12h minus 0-6h

precip 12-18h minus 0-6h

precip 18-24h minus 0-6h

precip 12-18h minus 6-12h

precip 18-24h minus 12-18h


UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

0-6h, OPI estimate

0-6h,0-24h minus OPI estimate

2-3d, 4-5d minus OPI estimate

9-10d, 14-15d minus OPI estimate


EVAPORATION

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

COADS climatology

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


LATENT HEAT SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean latent heat

zonal mean land latent heat

zonal mean ocean latent heat

latent heat 0-6h

latent heat 6-12h

latent heat 12-18h

latent heat 18-24h

latent heat 6-12h minus 0-6h

latent heat 12-18h minus 0-6h

latent heat 18-24h minus 0-6h

latent heat 12-18h minus 6-12h

latent heat 18-24h minus 12-18h


SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

COADS climatology

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin


SURFACE SKIN TEMPERTATURE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h


2-METER TEMPERTATURE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h


T2M MINUS TSFC SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h



PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


PRECIPITABLE WATER SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h



GLOBAL MEAN CLOUDS

global mean clouds

land clouds

ocean clouds


LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean low clouds ISCCP

low clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean land, ocean

day10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and gdas

NESDIS clavr and TOVS

gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr

gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force

clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs


LOW CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean

zonal mean land

zonal mean ocean

low cloud 0-6h

low cloud 6-12h

low cloud 12-18h

low cloud 18-24h

low cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h

low cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h

low cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h

low cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h

low cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h


MIDDLE CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

middle clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean ISSCP

day10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and gdas

NESDIS clavr and TOVS

gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr

gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force

clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs


MIDDLE CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean

zonal mean land

zonal mean ocean

middle cloud 0-6h

middle cloud 6-12h

middle cloud 12-18h

middle cloud 18-24h

middle cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h

middle cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h

middle cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h

middle cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h

middle cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h


HIGH CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

high clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean high clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and gdas

NESDIS clavr and TOVS

gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr

gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force

clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs


HIGH CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean

zonal mean land

zonal mean ocean

high cloud 0-6h

high cloud 6-12h

high cloud 12-18h

high cloud 18-24h

high cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h

high cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h

high cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h

high cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h

high cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h


TOTAL CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and gdas

NESDIS clavr and TOVS

gdas minus nephanalyses, gdas minus clavr

gdas minus TOVS, tovs minus Air Force

clavr minus Air Force, clavr minus tovs


TOTAL CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean

zonal mean land

zonal mean ocean

0-6h

6-12h

12-18h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h


CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst

0-6hr minus nephanalyses


BOUNDARY CLOUD SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean

zonal mean land

zonal mean ocean

bdry cloud 0-6h

bdry cloud 6-12h

bdry cloud 12-18h

bdry cloud 18-24h

bdry cloud 6-12h minus 0-6h

bdry cloud 12-18h minus 0-6h

bdry cloud 18-24h minus 0-6h

bdry cloud 12-18h minus 6-12h

bdry cloud 18-24h minus 12-18h


ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

COADS climatology

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


MAGNITUDE SURFACE STRESS SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

zonal mean

zonal mean land

zonal mean ocean

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h

0-6h ocean

18-24h ocean

6-12h minus 0-6h ocean

12-18h minus 0-6h ocean

18-24h minus 0-6h ocean

12-18h minus 6-12h ocean

18-24h minus 12-18h ocean


ZONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


10-M WIND SPEED

zonal mean

first guess, 1dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

3 dy, 5 dy

dy5-fg

10 dy, 15 dy

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


10-M WIND HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

zonal mean

first guess, 1dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

3 dy, 5 dy

dy5-fg

10 dy, 15 dy

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

first guess, satellite olr from CPC

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

zonal mean from satellite and first guess

first guess minus satellite olr

dy15-fg

standard deviation of daily olr from satellite

standard deviation of daily olr from first guess

standard deviation of daily olr from 96-120 hr fcsts

correl of olr anomalies satellite-firstguess

correl of olr anomalies satellite-54-72h

correl of olr anomalies satellite-102-120h

zonal mean correl of olr anomalies

correl of olr anomalies first guess-54-72h

correl of olr anomalies first guess-102-120h

Longitude-time plots of TOA OLR

45N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

Equator

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

45S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

Longitude-time plots of TOA OLR anomalies (from time-mean of period)

45N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

Equator

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

45S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr


DOWNWARD SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE


NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-f06,dy3-f06

zonal mean over land, ocean

85-91 SRB

dy5-f06,dy10-f06

zonal mean 85-91 SRB

dy15-f06


DOWNWARD SHORT WAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h


UPWARD SHORT WAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h


NET SHORT WAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE SPIN-UP FIRST 24 HOURS

0-6h

18-24h

6-12h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 0-6h

18-24h minus 0-6h

12-18h minus 6-12h

18-24h minus 12-18h


NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg