SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR AUGUST 2001
The operational global system was changed on Aug. 15. Thus the results shown here reflect two different systems.

A comparison of the old and new systems for July 2001>
Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors
Longitude-time diagrams
Transient eddy kinetic energy
Root-mean-square wind errors

MODEL PHYSICS

PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
CLOUDS
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Zonal 10m wind
Meridional 10m wind
10m wind speed
10m wind horizontal divergence
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface


AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL WIND

ZONAL WIND OVER LAND

ZONAL WIND OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT

TEMPERATURE

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT MOTION

HORIZ DIV

anl, 7dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

6 hr means

6 hr means

6 hr means

anl, 15dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 7dy means

7dy, 8dy means

7dy, 8dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

7 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7, 8 dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8 dy error, 8dy-7dy

8 dy error, 8dy-7dy

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error


LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N

EQUATOR

45S

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N

45N

30N

EQUATOR

30S

60S

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N

5N

10S

30S

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

6 hr mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT VELOC

anl,7dy mean

anl,7dy mean

anl,1dy mean

6 hr mean

3,5dy mean

7,8dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

10dy,15dy mean

6 hr error

6hr error

6hr error

6hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error



REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

300 mb

200 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

300 mb

200 mb

100 mb

50 mb

10 mb

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

3dy,5dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

7dy,10dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VECTOR WIND

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

7dy error

7dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

WIND STREAMFUNCTION

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

7dy error

7dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

NORTH AMERICA

850 mb

200 mb

150 mb

climatology

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3, 5dy fcst

3 ,5dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

7, 10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

NORTH AMERICA WIND CROSS-SECTIONS

U at 15N

V at 30N

anl,7dy fcst

anl,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1, 3dy error

1, 3dy error

5, 7dy error

5, 7dy error

10, 15dy error

10, 15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb

850 mb

400 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb

500 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

6 hr fcst

6 hr fcst

3,5dy fcst

3,5dy fcst

7,8dy fcst

7,8dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb

150 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

6 hr fcst

6 hr fcst

3,7dy fcst

3,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

6 hr error

6 hr error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

LONGITUDE-TIME DIAGRAMS

Meridional Wind 850 mb

15N

analyses for 1 dy fcsts

analyses for 3 dy fcsts

analyses for 5 dy fcsts

analyses for 7 dy fcsts

analyses for 8 dy fcsts

analyses for 10 dy fcsts

analyses for 15 dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 7 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

Zonal Wind 200 mb 5dy running means

60N

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 7 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

Meridional Wind 200 mb

60N

analyses for 1dy forecasts

analyses for 3dy forecasts

analyses for 5dy forecasts

analyses for 7dy forecasts

analyses for 8dy forecasts

analyses for 10dy forecasts

analyses for 15dy forecasts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

45N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

30N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15N

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

EQUATOR

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1 day fcsts

errors in 3 day fcsts

errors in 5 day fcsts

errors in 7 day fcsts

errors in 8 day fcsts

errors in 10 day fcsts

errors in 15 day fcsts

15S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 day fcsts

3 day fcsts

5 day fcsts

7 day fcsts

8 day fcsts

10 day fcsts

15 day fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

30S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

45S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1 dy fcsts

errors in 3 dy fcsts

errors in 5 dy fcsts

errors in 7 dy fcsts

errors in 8 dy fcsts

errors in 10 dy fcsts

errors in 15 dy fcsts

60S

analyses for 1dy fcsts

analyses for 3dy fcsts

analyses for 5dy fcsts

analyses for 7dy fcsts

analyses for 8dy fcsts

analyses for 10dy fcsts

analyses for 15dy fcsts

1 dy fcsts

3 dy fcsts

5 dy fcsts

7 dy fcsts

8 dy fcsts

10 dy fcsts

15 dy fcsts

errors in 1dy fcsts

errors in 3dy fcsts

errors in 5dy fcsts

errors in 7dy fcsts

errors in 8dy fcsts

errors in 10dy fcsts

errors in 15dy fcsts

TRANSIENT EDDY KINETIC ENERGY

zonal mean

850 mb

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY MERIDIONAL HEAT FLUX

zonal mean

850 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

850 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

TRANSIENT EDDY POLEWARD FLUX OF ZONAL MOMENTUM

zonal mean

200 mb

anl, 5dy fcst

anl, 5dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

10, 15dy fcst

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

1dy, 3dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

5dy, 7dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

8dy, 10dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

15dy fcst errors

RMS WIND ERROR

850 mb

200 mb

1dy fcst

1dy fcst

3dy fcst

3dy fcst

5dy fcst

5dy fcst

7dy fcst

7dy fcst

8dy fcst

8dy fcst

10dy fcst

10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst

NORMALIZED

850 mb

200 mb

1dy fcst

1dy fcst

3dy fcst

3dy fcst

5dy fcst

5dy fcst

7dy fcst

7dy fcst

8dy fcst

8dy fcst

10dy fcst

10dy fcst

15dy fcst

15dy fcst


MODEL PHYSICS


PRECIPITATION

global mean precipitation

znl mean precip

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

znl mean land, ocean

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

znl mean precip OPI/CAMS

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

OPI/CAMS estimate


UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

indep estimate


EVAPORATION

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

COADS climatology for August

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

COADS climatology for August

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin


PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


GLOBAL MEAN CLOUDS

global mean clouds

land clouds

ocean clouds


LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean low clouds ISCCP

low clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean land, ocean

day10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst

0-6hr minus nephanalyses


MIDDLE CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

middle clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean middle clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst

0-6hr minus nephanalyses


HIGH CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

high clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean high clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst

0-6hr minus nephanalyses


TOTAL CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

zonal mean clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst

0-6hr minus nephanalyses


CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD COVER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses

dy10-fg,dy15-fg

zonal mean nephanalyses land, ocean

nephanalyses and 0-6 hr fcst

0-6hr minus nephanalyses


ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

COADS climatology for August

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


ZONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL 10-M WIND

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


10-M WIND SPEED

zonal mean

first guess, 1dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

3 dy, 5 dy

dy5-fg

10 dy, 15 dy

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


10-M WIND HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

zonal mean

first guess, 1dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

3 dy, 5 dy

dy5-fg

10 dy, 15 dy

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

first guess, satellite olr from CPC

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

zonal mean from satellite and first guess

first guess minus satellite olr

dy15-fg

standard deviation of daily olr from satellite

standard deviation of daily olr from first guess

standard deviation of daily olr from 96-120 hr fcsts

Longitude-time plots of TOA OLR

45N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

Equator

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

45S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

Longitude-time plots of TOA OLR anomalies (from time-mean of period)

45N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15N

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

Equator

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

15S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

30S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr

45S

satellite

0-6 hr

60-72 hr

96-120 hr


NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-f06,dy3-f06

zonal mean over land, ocean

Aug 85-91 SRB

dy5-f06,dy10-f06

zonal mean August 85-91 SRB

dy15-f06


NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg