SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN OPERATIONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS FOR APRIL 2000

Area-averaged errors
Zonal means

LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS

Cross-sections of geopotential height
Cross-sections of temperature
Cross-sections of horizontal divergence
Equatorial cross-sections

REGIONAL ERRORS

Regional height errors
Regional temperature errors
Regional zonal wind errors
Regional wind errors
Regional relative humidity errors
Regional vertical velocity errors
Regional horizontal divergence errors

MODEL PHYSICS

PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
United States Precipitation
Evaporation
Sensible Heat
2 Meter and Skin Temperature
Precipitable Water
CLOUDS
Low clouds
Middle clouds
High clouds
Total cloud cover
Zonal sfc stress
Meridional sfc stress
Outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere
Net shortwave radiation at the surface
Net longwave radiation at the surface
Net heat flux at the surface


AREA-AVERAGED ERRORS verified against global analyses

TEMPERATURE

TEMPERATURE OVER LAND

TEMPERATURE OVER OCEAN

global

global

global

60-90N

60-90N

60-90N

30-60N

30-60N

30-60N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30S-30N

30-60S

30-60S

30-60S

60-90S

60-90S

60-90S


ZONAL MEAN FIELDS verified against global analyses

HEIGHT

TEMPERATURE

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT MOTION

HORIZ DIV

anl, 7dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 1dy means

anl, 15dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 5dy means

3dy, 7dy means

7dy, 8dy means

7dy, 8dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

10dy, 15dy means

anl, 15dy means

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

1, 3 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

5, 7 dy error

7 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7 dy error, 8dy-7dy

7, 8 dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8 dy error, 8dy-7dy

8 dy error, 8dy-7dy

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error

10, 15 dy error


LONGITUDE-PRESSURE CROSS-SECTIONS OF ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

45N

EQUATOR

45S

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

60N

45N

30N

EQUATOR

30S

60S

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

25N

5N

10S

30S

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

anl,1dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

3,7dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

10,15dy mean

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

EQUATOR

ZONAL WIND

MERID WIND

REL HUMID

VERT VELOC

anl,7dy mean

anl,7dy mean

anl,1dy mean

3,5dy mean

7,8dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

anl,15dy mean

10dy,15dy mean

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error



REGIONAL ERRORS verified against global analyses

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT

1000 mb

500 mb

250 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

8dy,8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

TEMPERATURE

1000 mb

925 mb

850 mb

700 mb

500 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

1,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

ZONAL WIND

850 mb

250 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VECTOR WIND

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

7dy error

7dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

WIND STREAMFUNCTION

850 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst western hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

anl,15dy fcst eastern hemisphere

1dy error

1dy error

3dy error

3dy error

5dy error

5dy error

7dy error

7dy error

10dy error

10dy error

15dy error

15dy error

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

925 mb

850 mb

400 mb

150 mb

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

VERTICAL VELOCITY

850 mb

500 mb

anl,1dy fcst

anl,1dy fcst

3,5dy fcst

3,5dy fcst

7,8dy fcst

7,8dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

10dy,15dy fcst

1dy,3dy error

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

5,7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

8dy, 8dy-7dy error

10,15dy error

10,15dy error

HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE

200 mb

anl,1dy fcst

3,7dy fcst

anl,15dy fcst

1dy,3dy error

5,7dy error

8dy error, 8dy-7dy

10,15dy error


MODEL PHYSICS


PRECIPITATION

znl mean precip

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

znl mean land, ocean

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

SSMI and TRIMM estimate


UNITED STATES PRECIPITATION

0-6hr,0-24hr

dy1-firstguess,dy3-fg

48-72hr,96-120hr

dy5-fg,dy10-fg

216-240hr,336-360hr

dy15-fg

indep estimate


EVAPORATION

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


SENSIBLE HEAT

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


2 METER AND SKIN TEMPERATURE

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 2m

dy3-dy1, dy5-dy1 skin

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 2m

dy10-dy1, dy15-dy1 skin


PRECIPITABLE WATER

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


LOW CLOUDS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean land, ocean

low clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean low clouds ISCCP

day10-fg,dy15-fg


MIDDLE CLOUDS

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

middle clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean middle clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


HIGH CLOUDS

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

high clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean high clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


TOTAL CLOUD COVER

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

clouds ISCCP

dy5-fg

zonal mean clouds ISCCP

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


ZONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

equator

zonal mean land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg


MERIDIONAL SURFACE STRESS

zonal mean

zonal mean land, ocean


OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

satellite olr from CPC

dy5-fg, dy10-fg

dy15-fg


NET SHORTWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-f06,dy3-f06

zonal mean over land, ocean

April 84-90 SRB

dy5-f06,dy10-f06

zonal mean April 84-90 SRB

dy15-f06


NET LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg,dy15-fg


NET HEAT FLUX AT THE SURFACE

zonal mean

first guess, 15dy

dy1-fg,dy3-fg

zonal mean over land, ocean

dy5-fg

dy10-fg, dy15-fg