`Testing and evaluation of the GFS 2017
The global branch has completed real time and retrospective testing of the GFS 2017. The implementation has been approved by the director of NCEP. The global branch requested the active involvement of the rest of the National Weather Service in evaluating the GFS2017and has received very generous participation. The official request for evaluation with specific questions for evaluators is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Eval_Letter_gfs2017_final.docx
NCEP Director Briefing Feb. 21, 2017 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Q3FY17GFSOD20170221Final.pptx
EMC CCB Briefing Feb. 17, 2017 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/CCBglobalFinal02172017a.pptx
The experimental GFS implements:
a. the NEMS software superstructure and infrastructure,
b. upgraded land parameterizations and updated, higher resolution land surface climatologies that should improve near-surface fields and reduce patchiness seen in some cases,
c. a fix to excessive cooling of 2m temperature during sunset,
d. changes to cumulus convection parameterization that is expected to improve summertime precipitation forecasts,
e. Near-Sea Surface Temperature that describes oceanic vertical temperature structure near surface due to diurnal warming and sub-layer cooling physics processes and that will improve SST, data assimilation and tropical weather forecasts,
f. Rayleigh damping reduced by 50% in the upper stratosphere, and
g. Assimilation of additional data and preparation for future satellites.
Retrospectives cover 5/20/2015-10/30/2016 and 5/11/2014-11/05/2014 and have been completed.
The official real time began 10/18/2016.
EMC has completed tests and evaluation.
Evaluation reports have been provided to EMC.
EMC director approved the implementation Feb. 17, 2017
The NCEP Director was briefed on February 21, 2017 and has approved the implementation.
There will be a separate 30 day evaluation for IT purposes only in April 2017.
GFS2017 would be implemented in June 2017.
Review of Evaluations http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGMar217b.pptx
Storm Prediction Center
Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/SPCevalletter.docx
Climate Prediction Center
Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017cpc.docx
Longer range forecasts http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFSpara2017Schemm.ppt
Weather Prediction Center
Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017WPC.docx
Ocean Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center
National Hurricane Center
Office of Water Prediction
Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017OWP.docx
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/WREvalLettergfs2017.docx
Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017SR.pdf
Resources for evaluators
The global branch plans to involve the field as in the last GFS2016 implementation.
The official request for evaluation with specific questions for evaluators is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Eval_Letter_gfs2017_final.docx.
Guidance for the evaluation can be found in: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/STMEGGBLDec216.pptx.
A VLAB forum for comments comparing the GFS and GFSX can be found at:
This is intended as a site for communication on what evaluators and users see in their comparisons of the GFS and GFSX. EMC hopes to respond to the comments if appropriate.
A verification site for the entire test period is available at
Real time maps are available via Fanglin Yangs VSDB web site and the parallel MAG and via Western Region.
On the main verification page: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ daily precipitation verification maps for CONUS and other regions can be found by clicking PRECIP QPF on the upper left of the main page.
Synoptic maps for different regions can be found on the lower left under 2-D Maps. An archive of such maps can be found by clicking Archive or at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/2Dgfsfcst/arch/. The current parallel is available from Oct. 25, 2016 on.
Plume plots of the GFS and GFSX near surface fields for synoptic stations can be found at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gfsx/EMCGFSXplumes.html
Plots comparing observed radiosonde soundings to soundings from the GFS are available at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/meg/index.html. Soundings from the GFSX are also available on the page. Hourly BUFR data including soundings from the GFSX out to 120 hours (and every 3 hours out to 240 hrs) have been developed.
Western Region map page for the GFS and GFSX is available: http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/gfs/html/
NCO mag eval site is available, showing in the GFS slot hourly output from the GFSX: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/
These gfs plots can be compared with the operational GFS displayed in http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/.
Quarter degree and half degree GFSX files are available on paraNOMADS: http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/.
20 km AWIPS files for the parallel are available at
Gempak .25 and 1 degree files from the experimental GFS are available for the national centers.
Files from the real time parallel and 1 degree files from the retrospectives are on WCOSS.
GCWMB real time (prnemsrn) 2016101718-
WCOSS directory /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1505
WCOSS directory /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1512
WCOSS directory /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1605
(to be completed by Feb. 6, 2017) This was
run in two streams. The first stream is done.
WCOSS directory /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1405
WCOSS directory /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1408
Location of the GFS2016 files to compare to the GFS2017:
The current operational GFS was implemented on May 11, 2016 12Z. The
experimental runs above should be compared to the following GFS2016 data on WCOSS:
For the period 2015041506-201507218 /global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4devbs15
For the period 2015070106-2016051906 /global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4devb
For the period 2016051112 on /global/noscrub/emc.glopara/global/gfs
The global branch will work with evaluators to ensure they get the data they wish for their evaluations.
The global branch will again produce case studies requested by NCEP centers and NWS regional headquarters and field offices. Please notify Glenn.White@noaa.gov and Tracey.Dorian@noaa.gov on what cases you would like to see.
The global branch is doing statistical verification of forecast fields against analyses and observations, precipitation, 2m temperatures and dew points, and 10 m winds over CONUS and Alaska, and hurricane tracks and intensity.
A verification site for the entire test period is available at
The parallel GFS for the past month is plotted as the PRX on: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/.
The verification of the real time parallel is at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/prnemsrn/
The verification of the 2014 summer retrospective will be http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1405/
The verification of the 2015 summer retrospective is http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1505/.
The verification of the 2015/16 winter retrospective is http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1512/.
The verification of the 2016 summer retrospective is http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1605/.
The VLAB forum for comments comparing the GFS and GFSX can be found at:
This is intended a site for communication on what evaluators and users see in their comparisons of the GFS and GFSX. EMC hopes to respond to the comments if appropriate.
Presentations on Evaluations of the GFSX
Comparison of GFS and GFSX global precipitation and systematic errors
GFS and GFSX Performance for Lisa, Gaston, Hermine Tracey Dorian
GFS and GFSX Performance in Anchorage, Alaska Tracey Dorian and Eugene Petrescu
GFS and GFSX precipitation comparison Glenn White
GFS and GFSX Systematic Errors Summer 2016 Glenn White
GFS and GFSX Systematic Errors Summer 2016 Tracey Dorian
GFS and GFSX Performance for Hurricanes Joaquin and Matthew Tracey Dorian
MODE verification of precipitation in GFS2017 Tracey Dorian
MODE verification of CAPE in GFS2017 Tracey Dorian
Global Branch statistical assessment of the GFS2017
Land surface team review of the GFS2017
Summary of case studies Tracey Dorian
Minnesota blizzard Corey Guastini
January 2016 blizzard Tracey Dorian
West Virginia flooding case study Tracey Dorian
Louisiana flooding case study Tracey Dorian
Hurricane Joaquin Precipitation Tracey Dorian
Evaluation of Hurricane Joaquin Tracey Dorian
Case studies proposed by Central Region Tracey Dorian
California precipitation Jan. 9, 10 2017 Tracey Dorian
MEG case studies including the experimental GFS:
Northeast snow event Feb. 9, 2017 Geoffrey Manikin
Northeast snow event Feb. 9, 2017 Tracey Dorian
California heavy precipitation event Feb. 17, 2017 Corey Guastini
Portland, Oregon heavy snow event Jan. 10,11, 2017 Geoffrey Manikin
Northern Plains blizzard Christmas 2016 Corey Guastini
West Coast storms Dec. 22-25, 2016 Glenn White
East Coast winter storm Jan. 7, 8, 2017 Tracey Dorian
West Coast storm Jan. 20-23, 2017 Corey Guastini
Tracey Dorian evaluation of Hurricane Matthew
Tracey Dorian evaluation of single forecast cases
Tracey Dorian evaluation of Hurricane Matthew
Tracey Dorian mode evaluation of jet streams
Tracey Dorian review of ocean cyclone of Feb. 8, 2016
Tracey Dorian review of case studies proposed by WPC and others MEG Dec. 15 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEG GFS Parallel EvaluationsMEGDec15.pptx
Mallory Row comparison of radiation in the GFS2016 and GFS2017 with satellite observations http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GCWMB_20161208.pdf
Website for her study http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/mpr/
Preliminary evaluation of the GFS2017 at WPC map discussion Dec. 9
Preliminary evaluation of the GFS2017 at MEG Dec. 1
New and old files
The global branch would like to
produce 1/8th degree files,
make them available for the first 36 hours via ftp for initial and boundary conditions for downstream modelers and
available on WCOSS for SPC for fire weather and for MDL for National Model Blend, and
stop distributing 2.5 degree files.
The 1/8th degree files will be worked after the scientific evaluation.
Presentations on changes to GFS
MEG presentation Nov. 10 reviewing GFS 2017 implementation plans and global branch verification pages http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGnov10b.pptx
Presentations on land surface changes
Presentation on preventing decoupling of surface and atmosphere
Presentation on NSST
Presentations on cumulus convection changes
Presentations on NEMS
NEMS GFS benchmark tests before the final parallels were started:
Benchmark forecast-only experiments initialized with current operational GFS
initial conditions. The NEMS GFS was configured to reproduce as closely
as possible the non-NEMS operational T1534 GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/nems/nems7w/ DJF 2015-16
Benchmark cycled experiments with data assimilation. Both GSI and NEMS GFS were configured to reproduce as closely as
possible the operational T1534 GFS.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/nems/nems8w/ DJF 2015-16
Google Doc from weekly NEMS GSM development meeting
4) Briefings on NEMS GSM development: see the 8 ppts in