`Testing and evaluation of the GFS 2017

 

The global branch has completed real time and retrospective testing of the GFS 2017. The implementation has been approved by the director of NCEP. The global branch requested the active involvement of the rest of the National Weather Service in evaluating the GFS2017and has received very generous participation. The official request for evaluation with specific questions for evaluators is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Eval_Letter_gfs2017_final.docx

 

Implementation is currently scheduled for June 20.

 

NCEP Director Briefing Feb. 21, 2017 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Q3FY17GFSOD20170221Final.pptx

 

EMC CCB Briefing Feb. 17, 2017 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/CCBglobalFinal02172017a.pptx

 

Questions or comments please contact Glenn.White@noaa.gov or Vijay.Tallapragada@noaa.gov.

 

The experimental GFS implements:

 

a.         the NEMS software superstructure and infrastructure,

b.        upgraded land parameterizations and updated, higher resolution land surface climatologies that should improve near-surface fields and reduce patchiness seen in some cases,

c.         a fix to excessive cooling of 2m temperature during sunset,

d.        changes to cumulus convection parameterization that is expected to improve summertime precipitation forecasts,

e.         Near-Sea Surface Temperature that describes oceanic vertical temperature structure near surface due to diurnal warming and sub-layer cooling physics processes and that will improve SST, data assimilation and tropical weather forecasts,

f.           Rayleigh damping reduced by 50% in the upper stratosphere, and

g.        Assimilation of additional data and preparation for future satellites.

 

Retrospectives cover 5/20/2015-10/30/2016 and 5/11/2014-11/05/2014 and have been completed.  

The official real time began 10/18/2016.

 

Current schedule:

 

EMC has completed tests and evaluation.

 

Evaluation reports have been provided to EMC.

 

EMC director approved the implementation Feb. 17, 2017

 

The NCEP Director was briefed on February 21, 2017 and has approved the implementation.

 

There will be a separate 30 day evaluation for IT purposes only in April 2017.

 

GFS2017 would be implemented in June 2017.

 

Evaluation reports

 

Review of Evaluations http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGMar217b.pptx

 

Storm Prediction Center

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/SPCevalletter.docx

Report http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/SPCreport.pptx

 

Climate Prediction Center

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017cpc.docx

Longer range forecasts http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFSpara2017Schemm.ppt

Stratosphere http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS17EvaluationStratosphere2016.pptx

 

Weather Prediction Center

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017WPC.docx

Report http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/WPCGFSP2017evalv3.pptx

 

Ocean Prediction Center

Report http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/OPCEvaluationofGFSp.docx

 

Aviation Weather Center

Report http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFSv14AWCevaluation.docx

 

National Hurricane Center

Report http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017evaluationNHC.pptx

Tropical storm genesis http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017reviewTCgenesisa.pptx

 

Office of Water Prediction

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017OWP.docx

 

Meteorological Development Laboratory

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFSprelim022017.pptx

 

Alaska Region

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017finalAR.docx

 

Western Region

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/WREvalLettergfs2017.docx

 

Southern Region

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017SR.pdf

 

Central Region

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvaluationCentralRegiongfs2017.docx

 

Eastern Region

Evaluation letter http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EvalLettergfs2017finalER.docx

 

Resources for evaluators

 

The global branch plans to involve the field as in the last GFS2016 implementation.

 

The official request for evaluation with specific questions for evaluators is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Eval_Letter_gfs2017_final.docx.

 

Guidance for the evaluation can be found in: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/STMEGGBLDec216.pptx.

 

A VLAB forum for comments comparing the GFS and GFSX can be found at:

https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group/home or https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group.

This is intended as a site for communication on what evaluators and users see in their comparisons of the GFS and GFSX. EMC hopes to respond to the comments if appropriate.

 

A verification site for the entire test period is available at

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/gfs2017/

 

Real time maps are available via Fanglin Yangs VSDB web site and the parallel MAG and via Western Region.

 

On the main verification page: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/  daily precipitation verification maps for CONUS and other regions can be found by clicking PRECIP QPF on the upper left of the main page.

Synoptic maps for different regions can be found on the lower left under 2-D Maps. An archive of such maps can be found by clicking Archive or at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/2Dgfsfcst/arch/. The current parallel is available from Oct. 25, 2016 on. 

 

Plume plots of the GFS and GFSX near surface fields for synoptic stations can be found at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gfsx/EMCGFSXplumes.html

 

Plots comparing observed radiosonde soundings to soundings from the GFS are available at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/meg/index.html. Soundings from the GFSX are also available on the page. Hourly BUFR data including soundings from the GFSX out to 120 hours (and every 3 hours out to 240 hrs) have been developed.

 

Western Region map page for the GFS and GFSX is available: http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/gfs/html/

 

NCO mag eval site is available, showing in the GFS slot hourly output from the GFSX: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/

These gfs plots can be compared with the operational GFS displayed in http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/.

 

Quarter degree and half degree GFSX files are available on paraNOMADS: http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/.

 

20 km AWIPS files for the parallel are available at

http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/noaaport/gfs/

 

Gempak .25 and 1 degree files from the experimental GFS are available for the national centers.

 

Files from the real time parallel and 1 degree files from the retrospectives are on WCOSS.

 

GCWMB real time (prnemsrn) 2016101718-
Directory /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/prnemsrn

HPSS_GCWMB:  /5year/NCEPDEV/emc-global/emc.glopara/WCOSS_C/prnemsrn
monitoring/verification: 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/prnemsrn

 

GCWMB 2015 Summer retrospective (pr4rn_1505) 2015050100-2016010200 (246 days)

Finished

WCOSS directory  /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1505

 HPSS_GCWMB:  /5year/NCEPDEV/emc-global/emc.glopara/WCOSS_C/pr4rn_1505
 monitoring/verification: 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1505

 

GCWMB 2015 Winter retrospective (pr4rn_1512) 2015121500-2016051518 (151 days)

Finished
WCOSS directory  /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1512   

HPSS_GCWMB:  /5year/NCEPDEV/emc-global/emc.glopara/WCOSS_C/pr4rn_1512
monitoring/verification: 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1512/

 

GCWMB 2016 Summer retrospective (pr4rn_1605) 2016050100-2016103018 (184 days)

Finished
WCOSS directory  /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1605
HPSS_GCWMB:  /5year/NCEPDEV/emc-global/emc.glopara/WCOSS_C/pr4rn_1605
monitoring/verification: 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1605

 

GCWMB 2014 Summer retrospective (pr4rn_1405) 2014050100-2014110518 (189 days)

(to be completed by Feb. 6, 2017) This was run in two streams. The first stream is done.
WCOSS directory  /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1405

WCOSS directory  /gpfs/hps/emc/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4rn_1408


HPSS_GCWMB:  /5year/NCEPDEV/emc-global/emc.glopara/WCOSS_C/pr4rn_1405

 

HPSS_GCWMB:  /5year/NCEPDEV/emc-global/emc.glopara/WCOSS_C/pr4rn_1408


monitoring/verification: 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1405

 

monitoring/verification:  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1408

 

Location of the GFS2016 files to compare to the GFS2017:

 

The current operational GFS was implemented on May 11, 2016 12Z. The

experimental runs above should be compared to the following GFS2016 data on WCOSS:

 

Gyre:/global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/gfs2016.

 

For the period 2015041506-201507218 /global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4devbs15

 

For the period 2015070106-2016051906 /global/noscrub/emc.glopara/archive/pr4devb

 

For the period 2016051112 on /global/noscrub/emc.glopara/global/gfs

 

The global branch will work with evaluators to ensure they get the data they wish for their evaluations.

 

The global branch will again produce case studies requested by NCEP centers and NWS regional headquarters and field offices.  Please notify Glenn.White@noaa.gov and Tracey.Dorian@noaa.gov on what cases you would like to see.  

 

Verification

 

The global branch is doing statistical verification of forecast fields against analyses and observations, precipitation, 2m temperatures and dew points, and 10 m winds over CONUS and Alaska, and hurricane tracks and intensity.

 

A verification site for the entire test period is available at

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/gfs2017/

 

The parallel GFS for the past month is plotted as the PRX on: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/.

 

The verification of the real time parallel is at   http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/prnemsrn/

 

The verification of the 2014 summer retrospective will be http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1405/

and

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1408/

 

 

The verification of the 2015 summer retrospective is http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1505/.

 

The verification of the 2015/16 winter retrospective is http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1512/.

 

The verification of the 2016 summer retrospective is http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/emc.glopara/vsdb/pr4rn_1605/.

 

The VLAB forum for comments comparing the GFS and GFSX can be found at:

https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group/home or https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/emc-model-evaluation-group.

This is intended a site for communication on what evaluators and users see in their comparisons of the GFS and GFSX. EMC hopes to respond to the comments if appropriate.

 

Presentations on Evaluations of the GFSX

 

Comparison of GFS and GFSX global precipitation and systematic errors

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/precipGFSGFSXc.pptx

 

GFS and GFSX Performance for Lisa, Gaston, Hermine Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFSXEvaluationTropicalCyclonesHighlights.pptx

 

GFS and GFSX Performance in Anchorage, Alaska Tracey Dorian and Eugene Petrescu

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/AnchorageGFSGFSXperformance.pptx

 

GFS and GFSX precipitation comparison Glenn White

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/precipGFSGFSX.pptx

 

GFS and GFSX Systematic Errors Summer 2016 Glenn White

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/syserrjja16.pptx

 

GFS and GFSX Systematic Errors Summer 2016 Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/UPDATEDGFSXSystematicBiasesSummer2016.pptx

 

GFS and GFSX Performance for Hurricanes Joaquin and Matthew Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGHurricaneJoaquinHurricaneMatthew.pptx

 

MODE verification of precipitation in GFS2017 Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MODEPrecipitationVerificationGFSNEMS.pptx

 

MODE verification of CAPE in GFS2017 Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MODECAPEVerificationGFSNEMS.pptx

 

Global Branch statistical assessment of the GFS2017

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGfebruary9b.pptx

 

Land surface team review of the GFS2017

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/landgfsx.pptx

 

Summary of case studies Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFSNEMSEvaluationSummary.pptx

 

Minnesota blizzard Corey Guastini

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MinnesotaBlizzard.pptx

 

January 2016 blizzard Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/January2016Blizzard.pptx

 

West Virginia flooding case study Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/WestVirginiaflooding.pptx

 

Louisiana flooding case study Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Louisianafloodingcasestudy.pptx

 

Hurricane Joaquin Precipitation Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/JoaquinPrecipitation.pptx

 

Evaluation of Hurricane Joaquin Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/HurricaneJoaquinGFSNEMSEvaluation.pptx

 

Case studies proposed by Central Region Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/CentralRegionCaseStudies2017.pptx

 

California precipitation Jan. 9, 10 2017 Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/CaliforniaPrecipitationGFSvsGFSX.pptx

 

MEG case studies including the experimental GFS:

 

Northeast snow event Feb. 9, 2017 Geoffrey Manikin

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGWeeklyShort22317.pptx

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/20170223NEwinterstorm.pptx

 

Northeast snow event Feb. 9, 2017 Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/20170223BonusSnowstormFeb917.pptx

 

California heavy precipitation event Feb. 17, 2017 Corey Guastini

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/meg23Feb17.pptx

 

Portland, Oregon heavy snow event Jan. 10,11, 2017 Geoffrey Manikin

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/20170202PDXsnow.pptx

 

Northern Plains blizzard Christmas 2016 Corey Guastini

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/meg5January17.pptx

 

West Coast storms Dec. 22-25, 2016 Glenn White

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/westdec2225.pptx

 

East Coast winter storm Jan. 7, 8, 2017 Tracey Dorian

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/20170112JanSnowstorm.pptx

 

West Coast storm Jan. 20-23, 2017 Corey Guastini

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/meg26Jan17.pptx

 

Tracey Dorian evaluation of Hurricane Matthew

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/HurricaneMatthewUPDATED.pptx

 

Tracey Dorian evaluation of single forecast cases

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/SingleForecastCases.pptx

 

Tracey Dorian evaluation of Hurricane Matthew

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/HurricaneMatthewUPDATED.pptx

 

Tracey Dorian mode evaluation of jet streams

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MODEJetVerification.pptx

 

Tracey Dorian review of ocean cyclone of Feb. 8, 2016

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Feb 8, 2016 cyclone case study.pptx

 

Tracey Dorian review of case studies proposed by WPC and others MEG Dec. 15 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEG GFS Parallel EvaluationsMEGDec15.pptx

 

Mallory Row comparison of radiation in the GFS2016 and GFS2017 with satellite observations http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GCWMB_20161208.pdf

Website for her study http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/mpr/

 

Preliminary evaluation of the GFS2017 at WPC map discussion Dec. 9

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/EMC Fridaydec9a.pptx

 

Preliminary evaluation of the GFS2017 at MEG Dec. 1

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGmedDec1a.pptx

 

New and old files

 

The global branch would like to

 

produce 1/8th degree files,

make them available for the first 36 hours via ftp for initial and boundary conditions for downstream modelers and

available on WCOSS for SPC for fire weather and for MDL for National Model Blend, and

stop distributing 2.5 degree files.

 

The 1/8th degree files will be worked after the scientific evaluation.

 

Presentations on changes to GFS

 

MEG presentation Nov. 10 reviewing GFS 2017 implementation plans and global branch verification pages http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/MEGnov10b.pptx

Presentations on land surface changes

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/sib.pptx

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/physics_20160712.pptx

Presentation on preventing decoupling of surface and atmosphere

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Zheng.ppt

Presentation on NSST

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/NSST.pptx

Presentations on cumulus convection changes

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/Scalea.ppt

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/ScaleJHan.ppt

Presentations on NEMS

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/nemsgfsi.pptx

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/NEMS.ppt

NEMS GFS benchmark tests before the final parallels were started:

1)  Benchmark forecast-only experiments initialized with current operational GFS initial conditions.  The NEMS GFS was configured to reproduce as closely as possible the non-NEMS operational T1534 GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/nems/nems7s/    JJA2015
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/nems/nems7w/    DJF 2015-16

2)  Benchmark cycled experiments with data assimilation.  Both GSI and  NEMS GFS were configured to reproduce as closely as possible the operational T1534 GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/nems/nems8s/    JJA2015
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/nems/nems8w/    DJF 2015-16

3) Google Doc from weekly NEMS GSM development meeting
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Q2jWLzF54uc7BKy5StI71AIZBubicvKT4YRn2ZFkH6o/edit
https://docs.google.com/document/d/14198clvYt3laT3ovNYmCbG6R1Tpmd67KCSynXuigFzo/edit

4)  Briefings on NEMS GSM development: see the 8 ppts in

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B5RfvOqYcm81YkdOdk1kdHpQNUU