Date: 990110
Sun, 10
Jan 1999 14:00:22 -0500
From:
Franklin
Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
Zoltan...
Strong fast zonal pac flow in models today. There
are numerous
shortwaves in this flow with the usual timing
and intensity differences
between the models. However all generally agree
on strong onshore very
wet flow into the Pac Northwest coast. Downstream
effects over interior
noam are minimal. I don't see any need for dropsondes
in the EPAC today.
Frank Rosenstein HPC medium range forecaster.
Date:
990111
Mon, 11
Jan 1999 14:36:05 -0500
From:
Franklin
Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
ZOLTAN...
AS YOU SAW EARLIER TODAY THERE IS AN IMPORTANT
SJHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE
PAC NW COAST ON THE 14TH WITH A BROAD TROF ROUGHLY
ALONG 135W TO
140W AT
12Z 14TH.
NEXT MORE IMPORTANT ONE IS DUE TO BE NEAR THE
PAC NW COAST 12Z
16TH .
THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE NR 40N 135W TO 140W
AT 12Z 15TH AND
NR 40N
AND 160W AT 00Z 15TH. UNFORTUNATLY THESE ARE
EMBEDDED IN VERY FAST
PAC
JET FLOW AND MAY BE OUT OF RANGE OF THE FLIGHT.
BY THE TIME THIS
IS IN
RANGE IT WILL ONLY BE 24 HRS UNTIL IT HITS THE
COAST.
MRF HAS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THIS
ONE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO
BE NR 40N 155W AT 12Z THE 16TH AND FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE PAC NW
BY 00Z
18TH.
FRANK ROSENSTEIN HPC
Date:
990112
Tue, 12
Jan 1999 09:04:32 -0500
From:
Franklin
Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
ZOLTAN...
NO CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS AFTERNOONS DISCUSSION.
SERIES OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES INDICATED BY MODELS COMING THRU EPAC
IN VERY FAST FLOW.
1. FIRST APPROACHING PAC NW COAST 12Z 16TH.
2. ANOTHER VERY STRONG SYSTEM IN MRF COMING TO COAST 12Z 17TH.
3. ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER ONE BY 00Z 19TH. ALL
COMING THRU THE SAME
AREA.
UPSTREAM TARGET AREA AROUND 40N 155W-165W.
4. SUGGEST WE FLY THE LAST TWO STRONGER LOOKING
SHORTWAVES COMING
IN
ALSO.
5. IF MRF IS RESONABLE BY 168 HRS...A VERY DEEP
SYSTEM COMING
SOUTH OF
ALEUTIANS NR 42N 175W ON 00Z 19TH A FEW DAYS
FROM NOW.
FRANK ROSENSTEIN, HPC
Date: 990112pm
Tue, 12
Jan 1999 15:16:21 -0500
From:
Franklin
Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
ZOLTAN...
NO DIFFERENT THAN THIS MORNINGS MESSAGE. WILL
REEVALUATE TOMMORROW
MORNING BUT AS WE DISCUSSED LOOKS LIKE MORE LIKELY
STRONGER
SYSTEMS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTI EARLY NEXT WEEK. ESPECIALLY
THE SYSTEM
FORECXAST TO
BE NR THE COAST 12Z 17TH ANSD BEYOND.
FRANK ROSENSTEIN HPC
Date: 990113
Wed, 13 Jan 1999 15:47:53 -0500
From:
Franklin Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@noaa.ncep.gov
ZOLTAN...
TWO IMPORTANT SHORTWAVES....
1. AFFECTING WEST COAST 12Z 16TH.
2. AFFECTING PAC NW AND OR CA COAST 12Z 17TH. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL AND
ENSEMBLES WORK THIS SHORTWAVE INLAND GENERATING A CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS STORM BY 12Z 18TH.
3. UPSTREAM THIRD SHORTWAVE NR 45N 160W AT 12Z 17TH IS IMPORTANT FARTHER
CONTROLLING DOWNSTREAM ONE NEAR THE WEST COAST. RECEIVED CALL FROM
JUNEAU CONCERNING NORPEX DROP INTO THIS ONE.
ROSENSTEIN HPC
Date: 990114
14 Jan 1999 14:40:28 -0500
From:
John Leathers <John.Leathers@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Issued Thu Jan 14
In addition to the previously discussed area
along the Wa and Or
coasts we have an area of uncertainty on day
3 (Sun) centered over
about 40n 100w which is in Nebraska. There
is disagreement among the
models as to the strength and speed of a shortwave
fcst to be near
that area at that time.
Leathers...HPC Medium Range
Date: 990115
15 Jan 1999 08:43:33 -0500
From:
Stephen Flood <Stephen.Flood@noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
Zoltan,
I am sending this to you 2 ways to make sure
you get it. Today's area
of uncertainty is the same location as yesterday...
42N/124W...for
days 4-5 (Tue-Wed) and concerns precipitation.
Steve Flood
Date: 990115 pm
15 Jan 1999 13:26:40 -0500
From:
John Leathers <John.Leathers@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
January 15...
We see nothing in the new 12z run of the avn
to change your plans from
what was previously discussed today.
Leathers...HPC Medium Range
Date: 990116
No written message was received from HPC. Steve
Flood identified the following systems of interest:
99012012 40N
125W
99012100 65N
150W
99012112 40N
97.5W
Date:
Sun, 17 Jan 1999 10:47:17 -0500
From:
Robert Oravec <roravec@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov>
References:
1 , 2
Zoltan,
Our target verification area would be to the east
of the Appalachians
across the mid Atlantic region near 40N 75W.
The disagreements among
the medium range models involve the amount of
low level cold air which
will be in place ahead of an eastward moving
closed low. Subsequently
the implied precipitation type to the east of
the Appalachians is our
concern today.
The verification time would be 1200 UTC 1/22/99 centered at 40N 75W
Bob Oravec
HPC/Forecast Operations Branch
Date: 990118
Mon, 18
Jan 1999 15:05:42 -0500
From:
Franklin
Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@noaa.ncep.gov
1. Large amount of uncertainty with a strong shortwave
in the plains
12z/ 22 Jan along 95W. This appears to be a hvy
pcpn producer.
2. Another pac shortwave approaching the west
coast 00z 23 Jan. A good
deal of timing and intensity differences.
Rosenstein HPC
Date: 990119
Tue, 19
Jan 1999 15:00:44 -0500
From:
Franklin
Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
1. Deep trof and closed low in the plains at 12z
22 Jan with expected
hvy rainfall in the Ms valley and Great Lakes
with possible hvy snow
across portions of the upper Ms Valley and wrn
Great Lakes. A fair
amount of unceratinty handling this feature.
2. Next strong pac trof approaching the west coast
12z 23 Jan has a lot
of uncertainty with intensity/timing and configuration.
Important model
differences on day 5 pcpn over the west coast
and inland into the
Rockies.
Rosenstein HPC
Date: 990120
Wed, 20 Jan 1999 08:39:08 -0500
From:
Franklin Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
This mornings models are in very good agreement on the closed low moving
from the srn plains to the great lakes region with mdt/hvy rain and
snow
on the back side.
Very large model differences continue with the next trof approaching
the
Pac Northwest at 00z 23 Jan and continuing thru 00z 24 Jan. Request
recon here as per ytdas discussion.
Rosenstein HPC
Date: 990120pm
Wed, 20 Jan 1999 15:10:15 -0500
From:
Franklin Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
Four areas of concern...
1. Deep closed low and trof in the lower Ms valley ejecting newd toward
the Great Lakes region from 00z 23 to 00z 24 Jan.
2. Large amount of uncertainty with a trof approaching the Pac Northwest
coast 00z 23 Jan to 00z 25 Jan. This is likely to be both a heavy rain
and heavy snow producer with a snow threat for SEA.
3. Heavy pcpn threat mostly or all snow for the srn coast of Ak with
a
deep Pac storm west of the state again during the period 00z 23 Jan.
4. Mrf has another significant looking shortwave dropping sewd
thru the
Glfak toward the Pac Northwest 12z 26 Jan with uncertainty shown by
ensembles and other models.
Rosenstein HPC
Date: 990121
Thu, 21 Jan 1999 15:06:37 -0500
From:
Franklin Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
Two areas of uncertainty and concern
1. Heavy pcpn expected along the ak coast from sw to se with two event.
First occuring 00z 23 Jan thru 00z 24 Jan and a second shortwave 12z
25
Jan.
2. West coast of the U.S. a great deal of uncertainty with a heavy pcpn
event mainly for Ca with hvy rain and higher elev hvy snowfall. Period
from 00z 23 Jan thru 00z 26 Jan.
Rosenstein HPC
Date: 990122
22 Jan 1999 09:49:28 -0500
From:
Stephen Flood <Stephen.Flood@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Zoltan,
The two areas of high uncertainty that are
reachable from NORPEX
flights are :
1) 35N/125W from 23 Jan/1200 to 25 Jan/1200.
This concerns possible
heavy precipitation...rain at low evevations
and snow at higher
elevations...for much of the state of CA.
2) 55N/150W from 23 Jan/1200 to 25 Jan/1200.
This event is similar to the first one...concerning
possible heavy
precipitation for the southern coastal mountains
of AK.
Steve Flood
No written request from HPC. Steve Flood was concerned about Alaska
precipitation event around 990126-27.
No written request from HPC. Steve Flood was concerned about
1) Alaska precip at 99012700
2) Washington-Oregon precip event, 990128-29
3) Large uncertainty regarding short wave over New
Maxico, 990128-29
4) Precip event in the east, 990129-30
Steve Flood is concerned about:
Day3 precip event,
45N 125W
precip/wind 38N
98W
Day4 precip/wind
49N 125W
precip/wind 38N
98W
Day5 precip
35N 84W
precip
48N 125W
Date: 990125 pm
25 Jan 1999 15:47:42 -0500
From:
Stephen Flood <Stephen.Flood@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov
Zoltan,
Taking a look at the latest AVN...NOGAPS...and
CANADIAN, it still
looks like the area between 46N and 52N and
125W along the Pacific NW
coast is a critical area for possible heavy
PCPN days 4-5 (FRI-SAT).
The area farther E is as follows:
Day 3---35N/105W...PCPN
Day 4...40N/80W....PCPN
Day 5...35N/75W....PCPN
Steve Flood
26 Jan 1999 16:46:51 -0500
From:
Paul Mausser <Paul.Mausser@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Zoltan:
The feature that we are most concerned with
is the major shortwave and
upper trof that will be impacting the Pacific
Northwest coast with
heavy rain and potential flooding problems
from snowmelt due to the
amount of mild Pacific air being brought onshore.
The area of interest will be between lat. 30N
and 45N; between lon.
120W and 130W beginning on day 4 (Sat. Jan.
30), or the coasts of WA,
OR and northern CA.
Paul Mausser
Date: 990127
27 Jan 1999 15:16:15 -0500
From:
Paul Mausser <Paul.Mausser@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Zoltan:
Once again I think that the greatest area of
concern is the Pacific
Northwest where there is the potential for
at least 4-6 inches of pcpn
along the immediate WA/OR coastline with only
slightly lower amounts
in the Cascades and Coast Range. Slightly
lower amounts, although
still significant (1-3 inches) are possible
as far south as
northwestern CA. This is in association
with a major trof forecast to
dig toward the west coast in the medium range
period.
The area of interest is similar to yesterday:
lat. 30N-50N, long.
120W-140W beginning on day 3 (Sat. Jan. 30).
This trof is also of particular interest due
to the potential effect
it may have on the downstream cutoff low forecast
to develop over the
southwestern U.S.. Most of the models
seem to be converging toward
the solution that the ECMWF was suggesting
for the last few days.
This will have significant impact on the 5-day
pcpn forecast for the
southeastern U.S., where there is the potential
for widespread 2-3
inch amounts from the Gulf coast into the
Tennessee valley.
Paul Mausser
Date: 990128
28 Jan 1999 13:15:56 -0500
From:
Paul Mausser <Paul.Mausser@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Zoltan:
The area of concern today is still along the
Pacific Northwest coast
where the digging trof will bring locally
heavy pcpn to parts of WA,
OR and northern CA beginning in the short
range period. The MRF has
backed off a bit on total amounts, but this
should still be a heavy
pcpn event.
A shortwave rotating through the base of this
trof appears to be the
one which will have an effect on the ultimate
track of the strong
closed upper low that will be lifting out
of the southwestern U.S. and
moving out toward the mid-Atlantic coast.
The expected track of this
system could lead to a wide area of heavy
rainfall with max amounts
exceeding 5 inches this period over portions
of the Mississippi, Ohio
and Tennessee valleys.
Thus the area to watch is with the shortwave
fcst to be in the base of
the trof beginning on day 2 (Sat. Jan. 30).
The area is lat. 30N-40N
and lon. 125W-145W.
Paul Mausser
Date: 990129
Fri, 29 Jan 1999 15:02:19 -0500
From:
Franklin Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
Zoltan
Timing of an approaching epac shortwave to the Pac Nw coast between
12z
02 Feb and 12z 03 Feb seems to be our next problem. Downstream model
differences are not as dramatic fro now. Rosenstein HPC.
Date: 990130
No request from HPC.
Date: 990131
No written request from HPC. Steve Flood was concerned about:
1) 99020412 40N
82.5W, precip, winds - possible snow storm in the east.
2) 99020412 42.5N
125W, precip, winds
3) 99020300 52.5N
120W precip, winds
Date: 990201
01 Feb 1999 15:09:47 -0500
From:
John Leathers <John.Leathers@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Feb 1....
The new AVN run is somewhat slower and a little
stronger with the
shortwave off the w coast on day 3 (thu) or
72 hrs. This looks like a
continuing area of uncertainty and your ideas
of this morning still
look good.
Leathers...HPC Medium Range
Date: 990202
02 Feb 1999 15:00:28 -0500
From:
John Leathers <John.Leathers@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Feb 2...
There continues to be an area of uncertainty
off the w coast north of
40N and out to 150W. Shortwaves are still
being fcst to move thru that
region on all three days of our fcst from
Fri to Sun. The most intense
storm is likely to be approaching the coast
on day 4 (Sat). The new
AVN run does not show any significant change.
Leathers...HPC Medium Range
Date: 990203
No written request from HPC. Franklin Rosenstein was concerned about
the heavy precipitation event on the west coast between 990206-990208.
Date: 990204
04 Feb 1999 15:07:13 -0500
From:
John Leathers <John.Leathers@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Feb 4...
Todays AVN run offers no surprises once again
from the solutions of
last nights models. We continue with the same
area of uncertainty off
the w coast as the upper trof shifts ewd to
move onshore on day 5
(Tue).
Leathers...HPC Medium range
Date: 990205
Fri, 05 Feb 1999 12:42:32 -0500
From:
Franklin Rosenstein <frosenstein@ncep.noaa.gov>
To:
ztoth@ncep.noaa.gov
Uncetainty with the next strong Pac trof approaching the west coast
between 12z 8 Feb and 12z 09 Feb. This continues the very wet spell
for
the Ca coast. There is a good deal of uncertainty on how far south
the
trof will extend and how much energy is in the base. Ukmet and ecmwf
bring hvier rainfall into srn ca while nogaps and mrf would keep hvier
pcpn farther nwd. Rosenstein HPC
Date: 990207
No written request from HPC. Steve Flood was concerned about :
low pressure wave in the east:
day4 37N 92
day5 38N 85W
next precipitation event on west coast:
day4 50N 125W
day5 50N 123W
day6 40N 130W
Date: 990208
08 Feb 1999 15:44:03 -0500
From:
Stephen Flood <Stephen.Flood@noaa.gov>
To:
Zoltan Toth <Zoltan.Toth@noaa.gov>
Zoltan,
I took a quick look at the new avnens and
the 12Z/08 NAVY NOGAPS and
heres how it looks:
Day 3 52N/125W pcpn
Day 4 49N/124W pcpn
Day 5 40N/120W pcpn
Steve Flood