SECOND
ENSEMBLE USER WORKSHOP
May 18-20, 2004, NCEP (room 707), Camp Springs, MD
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The workshop is to provide a forum for user discussions about the following aspects of ensemble forecasting: configuration, data, post processing, products and training.
| Mark Antolik | OST |
| David Bright | SPC/SSB |
| Keith Brill | HPC |
| Paul Dallavalle | OST |
| Brent Gordon | NCO |
| Michael Graf | OCWWS/ASB |
| Mike Halpert | CPC |
| Kathy Hughes | OST |
| Paul Janish | Entergy-Koch Trading (Houston) |
| Rick Knabb | TPC |
| Arun Kumar | CPC |
| Suzanne Lenihan | OST/ Science Plans Branch |
| Andrew Loughe | FSL/AD |
| Peter Manousos | HPC |
| Daniel Melendez | NOAA/NWS |
| Dave Michaud | NCO |
| Jon Mittelstadt | WFO/Pendleton |
| Fred Mosher | AWC |
| Linnae Neyman | NWS/Alaska Region |
| Minh Nguy | Delinia Corp (Houston) |
| Ed O'Lenic | CPC |
| Dave Plummer | NCO |
| Pedro Restrepo | OHD |
| Glenn Rolph | NOAA/ARL |
| Steve Schotz | NCO |
| Joseph Sienkiewicz | OPC |
| Barbara Stunder | NOAA/ARL |
| Steve Tracton | ONR |
| Dave Unger | CPC |
EMC PARTICIPANTS
| Hsuan | Chen |
| Jun | Du |
| Lacey | Holland |
| Ding-Chen | Hou |
| Geoff | Manikin |
| Jeff | McQueen |
| Zoltan | Toth |
| Mozheng | Wei |
| Dick | Wobus |
| BinBin | Zhou |
| Yuejian | Zhu |
| 1) Ensemble Configuration: |
| Resolution |
| Number of members: are many needed or can we statistically interpolate/extrapolate? |
| Multi-model approach |
| Stochastic model pertubations |
| Intial pertubations |
| Multi-center ensemble approach |
| 2) Ensemble Data: (current & future storage/bandwidth) |
| Low-resolution ensembles: is there a unique problem for ensembles? |
| Trade-offs between resolution (& only selected variables) and number of members |
| Who needs summary products; who needs output from all members? |
| Could NWP have succeeded with strictly limited data access (only a few fields)? |
| Balance between accepting constraints and striving for optimal future capability |
| * Add low resolution anomaly forecasts to high-res climate? |
| * Formats: Pgrib, Thinned Pgrib, Grib2, Different Map Projections, Gempak |
| * Users: NCEP Service Centers, AWIPS, ftp sites (public & commercial users) |
| 3) Post Processing: |
| Bias types: |
| * Expected value (first moment) |
| * Spread (second moment) |
| * Temporal variations in spread |
| Method types: |
| * Regression |
| * Kalman filter |
| * Neural net |
| * Baysean |
| Sample size: |
| * Function of (bias) signal vs. (random initial error) noise ratio |
| ** Adaptive, short training period for short lead times, longer, climate type sample for longer lead times? |
| Output: |
| * Model variables/grid |
| * Downscaled/new variables (NDFD and/or sites) |
| Where to apply: centrally or locally? |
| 4) Products & Training: |
| Prepared products vs. Interactive access to ensemble data: who needs what? |
| * NCEP Service Centers, WFOs, Public Servers (ftp, web)? |
| Which prepared products most often used? |
| Interactive tool set: |
| * What’s needed? Use AWIPS recommendation as starting point |
| * Who develops it? |
| * On what platform (AWIPS, NAWIPS, web, other)? |
| * Can same set of applications be used on different platforms? |
| Data access vs. training: |
| * Will limits to data access also limit spread of new ensemble methods? |
| Formal training: |
| * COMET |
| * NCEP Service Centers |
| * EMC Predictability meeting: should it be a telecon? |
| * Public - media |
The meeting room will be equipped with one overhead projector and a computer supporting electronic presentations (Web, Microsoft, etc).
| DC Metro Area | Airports & Hotels |
| Maps for Metro-system Users: | National Airport Metro Station |
| Old Town Alexandria & Metro | |
| Old Town Alexandria Hotels | |
| Hotel websites | Old Town Alexandria Area |
| Colony South Hotel |
