3rd NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop

31 Oct - 2 Nov, 2006

Bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NWS ensemble forecast information to review progress and discuss plans.

Draft Recommendations:

word document      (03/06/07)
powerpoint             (04/06/07)

preliminary agenda     (10/30/06)

preliminary list of attendees      (10/30/06)

Presentation Links:

Setting the stage

Completing the forecast with uncertainty information (Bob Ryan, NBC)                       
    Forecasting with Spaghetti:  page 1, page 2

Propagating uncertainty information in the forecast process (Zoltan Toth)

Assessing/Reducing/Representing Uncertainty from observations to modeling

Assessing/Reducing/Representing Uncertainty (ARRU) in observations (Yucheng Song)

ARRU in initial conditions (DA) (Mozheng Wei)

ARRU in numerical modeling (Dingchen Hou and Jun Du)

Overview of operational ensemble forecast systems: Recent changes, current and planned configuration and products

Global ensemble and NAEFS (Yuejian Zhu)

Regional ensemble (SREF) (Jun Du)

Ocean wave & sea ice ensemble (HS. Chen)

Climate ensemble (Suranjana Saha and Malaquias Pena)

User Reports

NCEP Service Centers
zip contains ppt and linked animation files that should be extracted to the same directory before viewing the slideshow

 NWS Regions 

Assessing/Reducing/ Representing Uncertainty in ensemble output

Statistical bias correction in NAEFS (Bo Cui)

A Bayesian ensemble processor (Roman Krzysztofowicz, Univ. Virginia)

Post-processing of Ensemble MOS (Matt Peroutka)

Downscaling applications at MDL (Mark Antolik)

An overview of the benefits of calibration using re-forecasts (Tom Hamill, ESRL)

Review of experience at other operational centers

MSC (Richard Verret, MSC)

AFWA (Tony Eckel, AFWA)

NMSM (Rene Lobato)

KMA (Sunok Moon)

CMA (Jing Chen)

Lunchtime presentation: Hydromet Testbed activities (Paul Schultz, ESRL)

Ensemble data depository, interrogation/product generation tools, delivery, verification

Ensemble data access/distribution (Brent Gordon)

NOMADS for ensembles (Jordan Alpert)

Requirements (Zoltan Toth)

Realities (NDFD, NDGD, IFPS) (David Ruth)

NAWIPS digital / graphical display tools (Scott Jacobs)

Ensemble verification system: status and plans (Yuejian Zhu)

Downstream applications

Air quality applications (DTRA & AOL) (James Wilczak & Pius Lee)

Hydrologic applications (Julie Demargne, OHD)   Part 1,  Part 2

Experimental ensemble river forecasting at NCEP (Dingchen Hou)

INFORM – Water management applications in CA (Konstantine Georgakakos)

User Support System development at NCAR (Bill Mahoney, NCAR)

Training (Bill Bua, COMET)

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