We
describe briefly the development and evaluation of the NOAA/NCEP
ensemble global ocean wave forecast system (EGOWaFS) . In this context,
the EGOWaFS consists of the NWW3 wave model, an ensemble of 11
different Global Forecast System (GFS) wind fields and an initial wave
field. The initial wave field uses the same one in the operational
NWW3. Eleven different wave fields are generated using the NWW3 subject
to the forcing of the 11 different wind fields respectively. Ensemble
mean, spread and probability with various thresholds are then
calculated from the ensemble of these wave and sea surface wind
forecasts. Buoy data in the months of May through July 2004 are used
for wind and wave comparison between the NWW3 and the ensemble. Bias,
root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation of the ensemble mean of
the winds and waves are very close to those of the NWW3 respectively;
the differences are minute. Trends of the ensemble spreads are well
correlated to their corresponding RMSE. A storm event of June 03, 2004
near Buoy 46006 indicates that the wind and wave forecasts of the
EGOWaFS, realized by the ensemble of wind and wave forecasts of each
member, are indeed more reliable and realistic than those of the
deterministic NWW3. Currently, the EGOWaFS is still under extensive
study. It has run in parallel mode since December 2004 and is targeting
for operational in June 2006. Ensemble wind and wave forecasts are
currently post at the below experimental website and ftp site: