NCEP EMC Global Model Verification

The site displays verification statistics for global NWP forecasts. All data used are on the GRIB G2 (2.5x2.5 degree) grid.

The NWP models evaluated are: GFS: The U.S. NCEP Global Forecast System; FNO: The U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanograpy Center; ECM: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; UKM: The United Kingdom Met Office; CMC: The Canadian Meteorological Center; JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency; CDAS: The frozen version of GFS used for the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project.

The regions referred to are: G2 (GLB): Globe NHX: 20N-80N SHX: 20S-80S TRO: 20S-20N PNA: Pacific North America, 180E-320E, 20N-75N

Pattern correlations for all NWP models are computed using anomalies respective to a 30-year (1959-1988) climatology of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.

Please see this presentation for definitions of the various verification statistics.

Documentations

GFS Annual Performance Review: 2012; 2011

Comparison of GFS Four Cycles link

HGT AC Frequency by Lord and Yang.

Q3FY2010 T574L64 GFS Implementation: Major Physics Changes and Resolution Increase

Precipitation Skill Scores Monte Carlo Significance Test.

Removing GFS negative water vapor: Positive Definite Tracer Transportant Scheme.

GFS/MRF/AVN model changes: History; 2003 documentation

GFS meteograms for most U.S. cities - four times daily