Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch

MODEL PERFORMANCE STATISTICS


Click here to see the new VSDB-based verification web site.
Please note plots made with the EMC legacy verification stats and displayed on this page have now been replaced by the new VSDB-based verifications . Please see this document for the differences bwteen the legacy and new methods.



*Photo by N. Mellerski
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See: weather maps     stats by cycles (00z,06z,12z,18z)

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Contact: Dr. Fanglin Yang ph: 301-6833722


EXTRATROPICS - lats 20-80 N and S, 500-hPa height(except where indicated).

Time series, anomaly correlations** in the extratropics
Time series of rms height error for forecast days 5 and 6 in the extratropics - many models - updated daily.
Time series of area-mean height error for forecast days 5 and 6 in the extratropics - many models - updated daily.
Decay curves time-averaged 500-hPa height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for various wave numbers, many models.
 

TROPICAL WINDS - rms and mean errors - 200 hPa and 850 hPa.

Rms vector wind error - time series, forecast day 3, many models, updated daily.
Mean windspeed error - time series, forecast day 3, many models, updated daily.
 
 
Growth curves of time-averaged rms vector wind error vs forecast length for many models - updated daily.
Growth curves of time-averaged mean windspeed error vs forecast length for many models

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** Each model verified against its own analysis. The anomaly correlation score measures the ability of a numerical forecast to represent general weather patterns of high pressure ridges and low pressure troughs, and the locations and strengths of fronts and major storms. It has a maximum value of 1.0 (a perfect depiction of the location of major weather systems), while a score above 0.6 is still considered useful by forecasters. It is universally accepted as a standard score by international weather modeling centers and the World Meteorological Organization.