*Photo by N. Mellerski
See: weather maps stats by cycles (00z,06z,12z,18z)
Contact: Dr. Fanglin Yang ph: 301-6833722
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch
MODEL PERFORMANCE STATISTICS
Click
here
to see the new VSDB-based verification web site.
Please note plots made with the EMC legacy verification stats and displayed
on this page have now been replaced by the new
VSDB-based verifications .
Please see
this document for the differences bwteen the legacy and new methods.
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*Photo by N. Mellerski |
________________________________ |
See: weather maps stats by cycles (00z,06z,12z,18z)
Contact: Dr. Fanglin Yang ph: 301-6833722 |
EXTRATROPICS - lats 20-80 N and S, 500-hPa height(except where indicated).
Time series, anomaly correlations** in the extratropics
Time series of
rms height error for forecast days 5 and 6
in the extratropics - many models - updated daily.
Time series of
area-mean height error for forecast days 5 and 6
in the extratropics - many models - updated daily.
Decay curves
time-averaged 500-hPa height anomaly correlation vs forecast length for
various wave numbers, many models.
TROPICAL WINDS - rms and mean errors - 200 hPa and 850 hPa.
Rms vector wind error -
time series, forecast day 3, many models, updated daily.
Mean windspeed error -
time series, forecast day 3, many models, updated daily.
Growth curves
of time-averaged rms vector wind error vs forecast length for
many models - updated daily.
Growth curves
of time-averaged mean windspeed error vs forecast length for
many models
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** Each model verified against its own analysis.
The anomaly correlation score measures the ability of a numerical
forecast to represent general weather patterns of high pressure
ridges and low pressure troughs, and the locations and strengths of
fronts and major storms. It has a maximum value of 1.0 (a perfect
depiction of the location of major weather systems), while a score above
0.6 is still considered useful by forecasters. It is universally accepted
as a standard score by international weather modeling centers and the World
Meteorological Organization.