October 26 & 27, 2004
2004 Production Suite
2005 Production Suite
2006 Production Suite
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Forecasts From The 2007 Hurricane Season
The Weather Research and Forecast system for hurricane prediction,
e.g. the HWRFTM, became operational
at NCEP in 2007. This advanced hurricane prediction system was
developed at the NWS/NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) to
address the Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems.
will have the capability to fully address the intensity, structure,
and rainfall forecast problems in addition to advancing wave and
storm surge forecasts. Also, continued advancements in track
prediction will remain an important focus of this prediction
is a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a
movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution. To
address the totality of the hurricane forecast problems noted
above, the HWRFTM will include
coupling to a nested wave model that will eventually be coupled to
a dynamic storm surge model. Additionally, the land surface
component will also serve as input to hydrology and inundation
models to address the hurricane-related inland flooding problem.
For initialization of the hurricane core circulation, an advanced
data assimilation method was developed at EMC that will make use of
real-time airborne Doppler radar data from NOAA's high altitude jet
to initialize the three dimensional storm scale structure. The
usage of real-time data in the HWRFTM hurricane core,
together with the higher resolution of the model, will allow for
more accurate hurricane predictions of intensity and structure.
Focal points for HWRF's 2012 implementation include the following:
1. HWRF RESOLUTION UPGRADE: For the first time in history, NCEP will be implementing a very high resolution hurricane model developed in joint collaboration with AOML/HRD. This is a resulted of a carefully drafted and executed R2O plan supported by NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).
2. HWRF FRAMEWORK UPGRADES: from V3.2 to latest community version WRF NMM V3.4a: The NMM core of the operational HWRF model will be upgraded to latest community version currently referred to as V3.4a.
3. HWRF CODE OPTIMIZATION: The HWRF team members at EMC have put substantial efforts to accomplish higher order code optimization, improved utilization of MPI functionality, design and use of I/O servers and many other code efficiency related changes in order to fit the operational HWRF run within the allocated time and resources. It is expected that the operational HWRF forecasts will be made available to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) within 80 minutes from the start of integration (about 20 minutes more than the current operational HWRF run time at 9 km resolution), with one additional compute node required per forecast (four nodes, 246 CPUs).
4. HWRF NEW NEST MOTION ALGORITHM: The current nest motion algorithm based on dynamic pressure will be replaced with a new centroid based algorithm essential for high-resolution grids. The new algorithm is more efficient in identifying and tracking the tropical systems more accurately, resulting in improved track and intensity forecasts.
5. HWRF PHYSICS UPGRADES: HWRF physics upgrades consist of modifications to the GFS PBL based on observational findings, improved GFDL surface physics, GFS SAS convection and Ferrier Microphysics parameterization schemes, and implementation of new GFS Shallow Convection parameterization. The cloud-permitting 3km nest is configured to explicitly resolve convection in the inner core of the hurricane. These upgrades are consistent with higher resolution grids, and have shown significant improvements in the hurricane track and intensity forecasts in our retrospective tests for two seasons (2010-2011) in both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.
6. HWRF INITIALIZATION UPGRADES: Vortex initialization is re-designed for 3 km resolution, with improved interpolation algorithms and storm size and intensity correction procedures. In addition, different composite storms are designed for application in storms designated as deep and medium respectively. Data assimilation through HWRF GSI is now included for all storms (current operational HWRF GSI is used only for deep storms). Although no inner-core observations are assimilated, HWRF uses GSI to assimilate prepbufr data in the tropical storm environment. Keeping with the upgrades of NCEP GSI, HWRF GSI will be upgraded to community version V3.5.
7. HWRF OCEAN UPGRADES: Efforts are under way to couple the Eastern Pacific basin to 1-D POM for improved intensity forecasts in that basin.
8. HWRF POST-PROCESSING AND PRODUCT UPGRADES: HWRF post-processor based on NCEP Unified Post Processor is upgraded to generate simulated synthetic microwave imagery from SSM/I sensors. A new very high-temporal resolution (every time step) track and intensity forecast data at 5-sec. interval will be provided at the request of NHC.
9. HWRF Tracker Upgrades: HWRF tracker based on NCEP tracker is modified to account for tracking tropical systems at very high resolution (3 km). This will become a part of the unified NCEP tracker being considered for implementation for all NCEP models and ensembles.
10. HWRF SCRIPTS ENHANCEMENTS AND PROCEDURAL UPGRADES: Operational HWRF scripts have been modified to accommodate triple nesting capability, higher-order optimization, configuration of I/O servers and various namelist options suitable for high resolution. These upgrades will also include changes to WPS (pre-processing), UPP (post-processing), POM upgrades and initialization upgrades. A few procedural changes will be required to run the HWRF tracker along with the post-processing to provide forecast output on time. These changes are expected to increase the efficiency and optimum utilization of CCS resources for high-resolution HWRF model runs.
The HWRF group at EMC works in conjunction with members of the Global, Mesoscale, and Marine brances to continually make improvements to the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) model for each hurricane season.
Extensive testing and evaluation is completed for each new model configuration before these changes are incorporated into the operational model. Collaboration from organizations like GFDL, DTC, NHC, and HRD is also essential to the hurricane team's progress.
The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system runs in the NCEP production suite on the NOAA Central Computer System (CCS), which is planned for transitioning to Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) in July 2013. The HWRF modeling system is developed and supported by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and operated by NCEP Central Operations (NCO). HWRF model consists of multiple movable two-way interactive nested grids that follow the projected path of the storm. As a major step towards providing improved intensity forecast skill, for 2012 hurricane season, the operational HWRF model was configured with triple-nest capability that includes a cloud-resolving inner most grid operating at 3 km horizontal resolution, encompassed by an intermediate grid at 9 km resolution and the outer domain at 27 km resolution. The HWRF model is coupled to 3D Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for the North Atlantic basin and is coupled to 1D POM for the North Eastern Pacific basin. The HWRF model is run each cycle for a maximum of five storms requested by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the North Atlantic and North Eastern Pacific basins, and provides 126-hr forecast guidance for hurricane track and intensity at every 3-hr interval and a very high temporal resolution (5sec.) information on location of the storm center and itΏs intensity (HTCF). The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts provide initial and boundary conditions for the HWRF model. An advanced vortex relocation and initialization procedure along with the GSI analysis system is used to generate the initial vortex and environment for the atmospheric HWRF model. POM model incorporates a feature based initialization of oceanic fields during the spin-up phase. An advanced coupler developed at NCEP provides means to exchange information at the air-sea interface of HWRF and POM models.
The objective of the HWRF team is to implement planned scientific and product enhancements to the operational HWRF annually, with an aim towards improved forecast performance using state-of-the-art numerical techniques. The HWRF project is an NCEP Annual Operating Plan (AOP) milestone which maps to NCEPΏs strategic goal to produce and deliver the best products and services, and prepare for a Weather Ready Nation.
Highlights for HWRF's 2014 implementation include the following:
HWRF Infrastructure/Resolution Upgrades: The NMM core of the operational HWRF model will be upgraded to latest community version referred to as V3.6a. Due to computational constraints, FY13 HWRF was run with a coarse vertical resolution of 42 levels with model top extending only up to 50 hPa. Proposed FY14 HWRF will have vertical resolution increased to 61 levels with model top extending up to 2 hPa. This will allow the model to have the much desired higher resolution in PBL, and resolve the upper atmosphere more accurately. Extending the model top to 2 hPa will allow the HWRF Data Assimilation System to ingest more satellite radiance data which usually peaks above 50 hPa. The nest domain sizes will be increased by 20% for the 9km domain and by 10% for the 3km domain to allow the high-resolution nests capture larger storm regions within the moving domains
HWRF Physics Upgrades : HWRF physics will undergo major upgrades which include RRTM-G for radiation, modified Ferrier Microphysics with advection of individual hydrometeors and an advanced land surface model (NOAH LSM). Radiation upgrades will improve the cloud-radiation interactions with better representation of cloud top cooling and cloud base warming. The proposed microphysics upgrades will enhance representation of the storm structure and provide more realistic distribution of hydrometeors, especially ice concentration and fall speeds. For the first time, a 4-level NOAH land surface model will be introduced into HWRF as a replacement of the GFDL slab model. NOAH LSM upgrades will address the cold land surface temperature bias noted in the current HWRF model forecasts, and will also provide the required surface runoff and base flow variables for landfall related downstream applications of river routing model and hydrology models.
HWRF Initialization Upgrades: Vortex initialization is modified with further improvements to the storm size correction and resizing the filter domain, and will better align the filtered vortex and the environment. For the first time, we will be continuously cycling the vortex from unnamed depressions (invests) when they transition into numbered/named storms, eliminating the cold starts for tropical storms.
HWRF Data Assimilation System (HDAS) Upgrades : The 80-member global ensembles based one-way hybrid EnKF-3DVAR data assimilation system for HWRF will further be upgraded to include more satellite data sets and aircraft recon data sets along with the NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar data. The GSI system will be further tuned to improve the initial analysis for all HWRF domains.
HWRF Ocean Upgrades : Ocean model component of HWRF will be upgraded to multi-processor MPI-POM-TC with single trans-Atlantic domain and for the first time, a 3D ocean for Eastern Pacific basin instead of the current 1-D POM. The ocean model resolution will increase from 1/6o to 1/12o and will have a modified feature based initialization suitable for the MPI POM-TC model.
HWRF Coupler Upgrades : The single processor NCEP coupler in HWRF model will be upgraded to run on multiple processors to enable faster communications between the atmosphere and ocean components. This is required due to increased resolution of the ocean model. The modified coupler will also include more efficient interpolation algorithms.
HWRF Post-Processing and Product Upgrades : HWRF post processing upgrades will include additional simulated synthetic imagery from different satellite sensors, and will have new products requested by SPC (tornadic potential fields) and for downstream applications including Hurricane Wave Model. For the first time, FY14 operational HWRF will now have complete GRIB2 support, eliminating all GRIB1 products from operational suite.
HWRF Script Enhancements and Procedural Upgrades : Operational HWRF scripts will undergo major enhancements with better exception handling features and efficiency. The new python based scripts will eliminate lot of duplication and will greatly reduce the length of HWRF scripts in operations. They also provide for the first time the opportunity to unify various versions of the scripts used by the community and developers. They also have the flexibility to add features that can be utilized for graphics and automation. Operational HWRF will remain in the vertical structure and will be known as hwrf.v8.0.0 on WCOSS.
For future HWRFTM advancements see:
Look here for real-time HWRFTM
forecasts for the
2009 hurricane season (Note: Links open in new window)