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Numerical Forecast Systems

NCEP ENSEMBLE FORECASTING REFERENCE PAGE


Book Chapter

Toth, Z., Talagrand, O., and Zhu, Y. 2005.The attributes of forecast systems: A framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts. In Palmer, T.N. and Hagedorn, R., editors, Predictability of Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press, pp. 584-595.

Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, G. Candille, and Y. Zhu, 2002: Probability and ensemble forecasts (final draft). In: Environmental Forecast Verification: A practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. Ed.: I. T. Jolliffe and D. B. Stephenson. Wiley, pp.137-164.


Journal Articles

Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2011:"Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast" Weather and Forecasting (in press) pdf

Hou, D., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, W. Yang and R. Wobus, 2011: "A Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation Scheme Representing Model- Related Uncertainties in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System" Submitted to Tellus-A (Dec. 2010)) pdf

Wei, M., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., 2010: Analysis Differences and Error Variance Estimates from Multi-center Analysis Data. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 59, 25-34.  pdf

Hou, D., K. Mitchell, Z. Toth, D. Lohmann and H. Wei, 2009: The effect of large scale atmospheric uncertainty on Streamflow predictability. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10, 717-733.   pdf

Son, J., D. Hou and Z. Toth, 2008: An assessment of Bayesian bias estimator for numerical weather prediction. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 1013-1022.   pdf

Wei, M. and Z. Toth, R.Wobus, Y.Zhu, 2008:  Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system.  Tellus, 60A, 62–79.   pdf

Toth, Z. M. Pena and A. Vintzileos, 2007: Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intraseasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1427-1429.    pdf

Toth, Z. and S. J. Majumdar, 2007: Meeting Summary: NOAA THORPEX Science Workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 88, 717-719.



Toth, Z., and M. Pena, 2007: Data assimilation and numerical forecasting with imperfect models: The mapping paradigm. Physica D, 230, 146-158.  pdf

Liu, Q., S. J. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth and T. Marchok, 2006: "Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System" Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.13.

Wei, M. and Z. Toth, R.Wobus, Y.Zhu, C.H.Bishop, X. Wang 2006: Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP, Tellus 58A, 28-44 . (PDF).

W. Tennant, Z. Toth and K.Rae 2005: Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits and Challenges. Weather & Forecasting.  pdf

Buizza, R., P.L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP Global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1076-1097. pdf.

Wei, M. and J. S. Frederiksen, 2004: Error Growth and Dynamical Vectors during Southern Hemisphere Blocking. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, 99-119. pdf

Wei, M. and Z. Toth, 2003: A New Measure of Ensemble Performance: Perturbation versus Error Correlation Analysis (PECA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1549-1565. pdf

Szunyogh, I.,  and Z. Toth, 2002: The effect of increased horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1125-1143. pdf

Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, S. J. Majumdar, A. V. Zimin, and A. Persson, 2002: Propagation of the effect of targeted observations: The 2000 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Monthly Weather Review, 130, 1144-1165. pdf
Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. Mylne, 2002: The economic value of ensemble based weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 73-83. pdf

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, and T. Marchok, 2001: On the ability of  ensembles to distinguish between forecasts with small and large uncertainty. Weather and Forecasting, 16, 436-477. pdf

Barsugli, J. J, J. S. Whitaker, A. F. Loughe, P. D. Sardeshmukh and Z. Toth, 1998: Effect of the 1997-98 El Niño on Individual Large-Scale Weather Events. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.,80,1399-412. pdf

Toth, Z., E. Kalnay, S. M. Tracton, R. Wobus and J. Irwin, 1997: A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble.  Weather and Forecasting, 12, 140-153. pdf
Plans
NOAA THORPEX-IPY Plan: Short-Term Arctic Predictability (STAP). Pre-proposal submitted to the International Polar Year Joint Committee. pdf
Conference preprints and proceedings
Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu and Weiyu Yang, 2008: Impact of a Stochastic Perturbation Scheme on NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 19th AMS conference on Probability and Statistics. New Orleans, LA, 20-24 Jan. 2008.  - pdf

Hou, Dingchen, Zoltan Toth and Yuejian Zhu, 2006: A Stochastic Parameterization Scheme within NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System. 18th AMS conference on Probability and Statistics. Atlanta, GA, Jan. 29-Feb. 2, 2006.  - pdf

Cui, B., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., Hou, D., Unger, D., Beauregard, S., 2006: The Trade-off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive. The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. Deccember 6-10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281-284.

Cui, B., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y., Hou, D., Unger, D., Beauregard, S., 2005: The Trade-off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive - pdf.

Wei, M., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y. Wobus,R.,Biship, C. 2005:   Initial Ensemble Perturbations using the Ensemble Transform Technique (ppt).  IAMAS, Beijing, August 9, 2005.

Toth, Z., J. Desmarais, G. Brunet, Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, R. Hogue, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. Gordon, E. O'Lenic, D. Unger, 2005:  The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) - (pdf).  THORPEX extended abstract.

Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus,R., Zhu, Y. Hou, D. and Cui, B., 2005:  NCEP Global Ensemble: recent development and plan (ppt).  2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble, Bologna, Italy, April 7-8, 2005.

Holland, L., Z. Toth, S. Majumdar, 2005:  Evaluating the impact of adaptive observations during ATREC-03 and WSR04 (pdf).  THORPEX extended abstract.

 Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Zhu, Y., Bishop, C. H. 2005. Initial Perturbations for NCEP Ensemble Forecast System.  Thorpex Symposium
 Proceedings for the First THORPEX Internal Science Symposium 6-10 December 2004, Montreal, Canada. The Symposium Proceedings in a WMO Publication 2005, WMO TD No.1237, WWRP THORPEX No. 6, p227-230. (word file) (powerpoint presentation).

Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, C. Bishop, X. Wang, 2004: An Analysis of the impact of observational data on ETKF-based ensemble perturbations (pdf file) (powerpoint presentation). Proceedings of the th 84th AMS Annual Meeting. 11-15 January 2004, Seattle, WA.

Holland, L., Z. Toth, J. Moskaitis, S. Majumdar, C. Bishop, R. Smith, 2004: Results from the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program 2002-2003. Proceedings of the 84th AMS Annual Meeting. 11-15 January 2004, Seattle, WA. pdf

Marchok, T., Z. Toth, Q. Liu, 2003: Use of the NCEP Global Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Proceedings of the 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 28 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA. pdf

Toth, Z., and S. Vannitsem, 2002: Model errors and ensemble forecasting. Proceedings of the 8th ECMWF Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems. November 12-16, 2001, Reading, England, 146-154. pdf

Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus, 2001: Does increased model resolution enhance predictability? Preprints for the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, 13-17 January 2002, Orlando, FL, in print. pdf

Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, C. Bishop, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, J. Moskaitis, D. Reynolds, D. Weinbrenner, D. Michaud, N. Surgi, M. Ralph, J. Parrish, J. Talbot, J. Pavone, and S. Lord, 2001: Adaptive observations at NCEP: Past, present, and future. Preprints for the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, 13-17 January 2002, Orlando, FL, in print. pdf

Wei, M., and Z. Toth, Z.,  2001: How well can ensemble perturbations explain forecast errors? Preprints for the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 13-17 January 2002, Orlando, FL, in print. pdf

Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, C. Bishop, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, and S. Lord, 2001: On the use of targeted observations in operational numerical weather prediction. Preprints of the 5th AMS Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, January 15-19 2000, Albuquerque, NM, in print. pdf

Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2001: Extreme weather events and their probabilistic prediction by the NCEP ensemble.Preprints for the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 14-19 January 2001, Albuquerque, NM, AMS, in print. pdf
Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus, 2000: On the economic value of ensemble based weather forecasts.  Preprints for the 15th AMS Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Ashville, NC, May 8-11, 2000. pdf
Preprint volume back cover,  January 10-14, 2000, Long Beach, CA: 4th Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, B. Etherton, C. Bishop, S. Lord, M. Ralph, O. Persson, and Z.-X. Pu, 2000: Targeted observations at NCEP: Toward an operational implementation. Preprints of the 4th Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, 10-14 January 2000, Long Beach, Ca, 186-193. pdf
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, B. Etherton, C. Bishop, and S. Lord, 1999: The 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance program. Preprints of the 13th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 1999: The impact of model resolution on the performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system. Preprints of the 13th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Wobus, R., Z. Toth, and Y. Zhu, 1999: An evaluation of probabilistic forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble. Preprints of the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 1999: Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Preprints of the 17th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 13-17 September 1999, Denver, CO, in print.
Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 1999: Objective evaluation of QPF forecasts based on the NCEP ensemble. Preprints of the Third International Scientific Conference on the Global Energy and Water Cycle, Beijing, June 1999.
Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, C. Bishop, and S. Lord, 1999: Ensemble-based targeted observations during NORPEX. Preprints of the 3rd Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems,10-15 January 1999, Dallas, Texas, 74-77.
Toth, Zoltan, I. Szunyogh, K. Emanuel, C. Snyder, J. Woollen, W. Wu, T. Marchok, R. Morss and C. Bishop, 1998: Ensemble-based targeted observations during FASTEX . Preprints , 12th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona.
Zhu, Y., Toth, Z., E. Kalnay, and S. Tracton, 1998: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble. Preprints of the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, J8-J11.
Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, T. Marchok, . Tracton, and E. Kalnay, 1998: Verification of the NCEP global ensemble forecasts. Preprints of the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Arizona, 286-289.
 
Bishop, C. H. and Z. Toth, 1996: Using ensembles to identify observations likely to improve forecasts . Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
 Iyengar, G., Z. Toth, E. Kalnay and J. S. Woollen, 1996: Are the bred vectors representative of analysis errors? .Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Kalnay, E. and Z. Toth, 1996: Ensemble prediction at NCEP . Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Pu, Z., E. Kalnay, D. Parrish, W. Wu and Z. Toth, 1996: The use of bred vectors in the NCEP global 3-D variational analysis system . Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh and E. Kalnay, 1996: Singular, Lyapunov and bred vectors in ensemble forecasting . Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Tracton, M. S., R. Wobus and Z. Toth, 1996: On the principles and operational utility of ensemble prediction . Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Wobus, R., Z. Toth, S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, 1996: How the NCEP Ensemble works: synoptic examples . Preprints , 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia.
Zhu, Y., G. Iyengar, Z. Toth, S. M. Tracton and T. Marchok, 1996: Objective evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system . Preprints , 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, Virginia.

Conference preprint volume covers and other figures
Preprint Volume Front Cover, 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia, 1996. (LARGE: 570K)
Preprint Volume Back Cover, 11th AMS Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, Virginia, 1996. (LARGE: 570K)
Preprint Volume Back Cover, Fourth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, Long Beach, CA, 9-14 January 2000. (LARGE: 824K)